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Uponthemonster > 2007 Regular Season Archives > Ninety-freakin'-seven!


Title: Ninety-freakin'-seven!
Description: GO PAPS!


George - April 14, 2007 01:50 PM (GMT)
Wow.

Just wow.

He was dominating last year and he's added at LEAST 2 miles an hour to his arm somehow in the offseason.

I guess one of the things we forgot about when talking about Papelbon's shoulder-strengthening program is that besides helping him avoid injury. his shoulder would actually be stronger

Whatever Paps is doing with his shoulder, all our pitchers should be doing it!

macs3rd - April 14, 2007 01:56 PM (GMT)
Papelbon may not have won the game last night, or recorded a save or even a close. Should we say he pulled that inning out ? Good work by Tito bringing him in when he did, and even though it scared the hell out of me, taking him out when he did.

George - April 14, 2007 01:59 PM (GMT)
Papelbon is BETTER than he was in 2006.

I repeat:

Paps is BETTER than he was in a year he recorded a sub 1 ERA.

He made Vladimir-freakin'-Guerrero look like a minor leaguer!

Incidentally, I hope Paps uses his starter-fastball sometimes. If he can get his gas up to 97, a fastball at 91 or 92 counts as offspeed.

Offbase - April 14, 2007 02:16 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 09:59 AM)
Papelbon is BETTER than he was in 2006.

I repeat:

Paps is BETTER than he was in a year he recorded a sub 1 ERA.

He made Vladimir-freakin'-Guerrero look like a minor leaguer!

Incidentally, I hope Paps uses his starter-fastball sometimes. If he can get his gas up to 97, a fastball at 91 or 92 counts as offspeed.

George,
I remember him hitting 96 - 97 a few times last year. He just couldn't do it on back to back days or much at all as the season wore on. If he loses a little as the months go by, it will take him more pitches to do his job, but he'll still get the outs he has to get.

OTOH, if his new conditioning program and more careful use mean he can dial it up more often ... look out AL batters. :D

mettle - April 14, 2007 05:34 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:50 AM)
Wow.

Just wow.

He was dominating last year and he's added at LEAST 2 miles an hour to his arm somehow in the offseason.

I guess one of the things we forgot about when talking about Papelbon's shoulder-strengthening program is that besides helping him avoid injury. his shoulder would actually be stronger

Whatever Paps is doing with his shoulder, all our pitchers should be doing it!

Is it me or do the guns seems high on everyone so far this year?
Not to take anything away from Paps - the guy is golden in my eyes - but I think I even saw Tavarez clocked at 94 or 95 in his start.

EDITED: Either everyone's added a few MPH to their fastball this year and Tav is throwing as fast as Clemens used to in the 80s or the guns are a little off.

Offbase - April 14, 2007 05:59 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (mettle @ Apr 14 2007, 01:34 PM)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:50 AM)
Wow.

Just wow.

He was dominating last year and he's added at LEAST 2 miles an hour to his arm somehow in the offseason.

I guess one of the things we forgot about when talking about Papelbon's shoulder-strengthening program is that besides helping him avoid injury. his shoulder would actually be stronger

Whatever Paps is doing with his shoulder, all our pitchers should be doing it!

Is it me or do the guns seems high on everyone so far this year?
Not to take anything away from Paps - the guy is golden in my eyes - but I think I even saw Tavarez clocked at 94 or 95 in his start.

Either everyone's added a few MPH to their fastball this year, or Tav is throwing as fast as Clemens used to in the 80s.

Good question!
Who manages the gus? Checks their accuracy? Can the home team use one for their pitcher and a slower one for the visitors, or otherwise mess with the enemy's head? Or is MLB messing with everybody?

mettle - April 14, 2007 06:23 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (Offbase @ Apr 14 2007, 12:59 PM)
QUOTE (mettle @ Apr 14 2007, 01:34 PM)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:50 AM)
Wow.

Just wow.

He was dominating last year and he's added at LEAST 2 miles an hour to his arm somehow in the offseason.

I guess one of the things we forgot about when talking about Papelbon's shoulder-strengthening program is that besides helping him avoid injury. his shoulder would actually be stronger

Whatever Paps is doing with his shoulder, all our pitchers should be doing it!

Is it me or do the guns seems high on everyone so far this year?
Not to take anything away from Paps - the guy is golden in my eyes - but I think I even saw Tavarez clocked at 94 or 95 in his start.

Either everyone's added a few MPH to their fastball this year, or Tav is throwing as fast as Clemens used to in the 80s.

Good question!
Who manages the gus? Checks their accuracy? Can the home team use one for their pitcher and a slower one for the visitors, or otherwise mess with the enemy's head? Or is MLB messing with everybody?

Just like the long ball, "chics" :embarrassed: dig the heater.
I think everyone's guns are jacked up a bit.

A few interesting pieces on the issue:
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.j...t=.jsp&c_id=nym
http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/bmoyn...tch_Ever_Thrown

This one is especially interesting:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...and-speed-guns/

JayhawkBill - April 14, 2007 07:11 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:59 AM)
Papelbon is BETTER than he was in 2006.

I repeat:

Paps is BETTER than he was in a year he recorded a sub 1 ERA.


Jon Papelbon, 2006/2007:

ERA 0.92/0.00
FIP 2.16/-0.59
xFIP 3.31/0.12

Gotta love that negative FIP. :D

It's a small sample size, but I'd point to the xFIP difference as the best metric in this case. YMMV.

mettle - April 14, 2007 07:18 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (JayhawkBill @ Apr 14 2007, 02:11 PM)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:59 AM)
Papelbon is BETTER than he was in 2006.

I repeat:

Paps is BETTER than he was in a year he recorded a sub 1 ERA.


Jon Papelbon, 2006/2007:

ERA 0.92/0.00
FIP 2.16/-0.59
xFIP 3.31/0.12

Gotta love that negative FIP. :D

It's a small sample size, but I'd point to the xFIP difference as the best metric in this case. YMMV.

Does that xFIP for '06 mean that independent of fielding, park effects and luck, that Paps' ERA "should" have been 3.31?

JayhawkBill - April 14, 2007 07:56 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (mettle @ Apr 14 2007, 02:18 PM)
Does that xFIP for '06 mean that independent of fielding, park effects and luck, that Paps' ERA "should" have been 3.31?

xFIP models pitchers' performance on a scale equivalent to ERA, but based on three things:

1) BB rate
2) K rate
3) outfield fly ball rate (a proxy for HR rate, but less susceptible to luck in small samples)

Based on those three stats, Paps was about as good as a 3.31 ERA pitcher in 2006.

Which is more accurate? Well, for past seasons, ERA certainly describes better the pitcher's effectiveness. ERA is "real." But future ERA, IIRC, correlates more closely with previous year xFIP than with previous year ERA...suggesting, perhaps, that xFIP is a better metric of a pitcher's work, independent of defense and "luck."

***

A different way of modeling pitchers' effectiveness is to take WXRL, to convert that into VORP, and to convert that back to ERA. By that method, Jon Papelbon's 2006 probably equates to a negative ERA--he was that good when it counted. xFIP is less kind to Paps. I think that Paps was lucky in 2006--but I think that his 0.00 ERA in 2007 has nothing to do with luck. It has to do with dominance.

And, at least for this moment, a healthy shoulder... :unsure:


RóbaloCC - April 15, 2007 01:40 AM (GMT)
Gotta love that negative FIP. I wonder if we could lobby MLB to have Paps SCORE runs after a truly dominant outing. We could go into the bottom of the 9th winning 1-0 and end up 3-0 :D

Not enough info about Tito's attitude towards Paps' shoulder yet. It was reassuring that he went to Timlin yesterday rather than let Paps take a meaningless save. We'll see.

ghostofdouggriffin - April 16, 2007 03:46 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (macs3rd @ Apr 14 2007, 08:56 AM)
Papelbon may not have won the game last night, or recorded a save or even a close. Should we say he pulled that inning out ? Good work by Tito bringing him in when he did, and even though it scared the hell out of me, taking him out when he did.

See, in the old days (the '70's), he would have gotten a save for that, and deservedly so.

George - April 22, 2007 03:00 AM (GMT)
Can we get a "NINETY-FREAKIN'-EIGHT!!!" from the audience please?

He's just amazing! Every time you think you've seen it all he shows you more!

George - April 22, 2007 03:02 AM (GMT)
QUOTE (mettle @ Apr 14 2007, 12:34 PM)
QUOTE (George @ Apr 14 2007, 08:50 AM)
Wow.

Just wow.

He was dominating last year and he's added at LEAST 2 miles an hour to his arm somehow in the offseason.

I guess one of the things we forgot about when talking about Papelbon's shoulder-strengthening program is that besides helping him avoid injury. his shoulder would actually be stronger

Whatever Paps is doing with his shoulder, all our pitchers should be doing it!

Is it me or do the guns seems high on everyone so far this year?
Not to take anything away from Paps - the guy is golden in my eyes - but I think I even saw Tavarez clocked at 94 or 95 in his start.

EDITED: Either everyone's added a few MPH to their fastball this year and Tav is throwing as fast as Clemens used to in the 80s or the guns are a little off.

Tavarez hit 94 in Toronto, I remember being shocked at that, so what you say is possibly true. A fastball with the kind of movement Tavarez has, clocking in at 94, should be giving him something a bit flashier as far as ERA's go.

janeyjane17 - April 22, 2007 02:42 PM (GMT)
I think the Fox gun is cooked a little. Beckett was hitting some high MPH,which he's fully capable of, but there were more 97MPH yesterday from him than I'm used to seeing. The same went for Papelbon- who while he has a wicked fastball, usually hits about 96 when he dials it up. I could have sworn the gun hit 98 yesterday. It certainly gets the audience excited though and maybe more invested in the game, so I can understand why they do it. It just seems like during ESPN and Fox games, we see higher numbers than we usually see from the same pitcher when he's on a NESN broadcast. We should have a comparison the next time a game is on NESN here at home, and ESPN elsewhere.

George - April 22, 2007 05:05 PM (GMT)
He's hit 97 on NESN's gun...




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