GLOBAL PEAK OIL ENERGY CRISIS CHANGES WE WILL SEE From:
http://gasprices-usa.com ". . the world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary."
U S Dept. of Energy report
The United States of America is about to go through a profound and wrenching change. As is the rest of the world. We face a crisis we have never before confronted in human history. Energy for transportation manufacturing and everyday living will have to come from another source than the one we use now, a less efficient source. That beautiful black liquid with the fantastic Power/Mass ratio that was the base building block of our civilization is going to hit its mid-point, Global Peak Oil, and then slide into permanent decline and we are going to have to make major changes in our primary energy source. We are at the beginning of the end of the Age of Oil, Diesel and Gasoline. One prediction is that gas prices could trend upward at around a dollar a gallon a year once Peak Oil is reached (though it should be remembered higher prices bring about a more conservative energy expenditure which will effect price). The average per capita consumption of gasoline in the US in 2004 was 465 gallons. Our society is starting through a profound energy source transformation in the middle of a worldwide War on Terror that will last many years, a War in Afghanistan and the War in Iraq in the middle of the oil fields of the Middle East. It won't be easy. It could get quite rough financially. It will touch every part of our society. It is already too late for a smooth transition to the future's energy sources !!
The liquid nature of gasoline and diesel and the Power/Mass ratio has led to civilization as we know it today. This gave us the energy source to build our current transportation systems and lifestyles. That is about the change. Global Peak Oil marks the point at which half of the oil is gone. Population and therefore demand keeps going up but the oil supply begins to go down. Year after year, decade after decade, demand and population increase, supplies of oil decrease. Until all the oil is gone.
Gas prices and the price of just about everything will reflect this peak once it has been reached. This point has been predicted by knowledgeable people in the energy community as being in 2008-2010 though no one really knows for certain. Oil reserves spike in 80's.
Demand destruction from high prices will help stabilize gas prices as people change their ways of doing things and a recession with its slowdown in business activity (and therefore energy consumption) would alter the landscape but gas prices will trend upward. How sharply remains to be seen. Upward pressure on prices from rising Asian economies will be significant. Gas prices will, over the coming years, keep hitting new plateaus where they will stay for a while, then surge up to a new high. A new level of pain!!
It is not that we are going to run out of oil, that won't happen for a while. You don't have to lose all the water in your body to suffer the effects of dehydration, 5% will do that. It's the same with oil. When oil peaks it will jolt our personal vehicle based civilization and our economy. No one will escape it. You will see it in ever increasing gas prices, manufactured goods prices, the price of just about everything will rise until we transition to new energy sources and new energy efficient ways of doing things. The Party is over. And when peak is hit, the law of supply and demand in times of scarcity and hysteria will begin to show its ugly face. Then we will begin to change our ways.
Our energy is about to become much more expensive. This will cause fundamental changes in our economy and our society. By 2030 the world's demand for oil is expected to rise from 85 million barrels a day to 120 million barrels of oil per day. We would need to increase oil production by about 1.1 million barrels per day, each year beyond 2010, to keep up with demand. Or find alternative sources of energy. Right now we are in a consensus trance of denial fixated on gas prices and not on the sweeping changes that will come.
The first to feel the economic effects of Global Peak Oil and rising gas prices will be the poor. Gas prices will hit them hard. They will be forced to give up their cars and start using mass transit, bicycles and tricycles. The cost of energy will continually squeeze them. If it costs more to grow food and it costs more to haul food it will cost more to eat. And that is just the beginning.
Oil and gas are used for a whole list of things basic to our way of life. Not only is it used for fuel for transport of everything that moves from point A to point B, we use oil and gas based fertilizers to grow our food. Plastic products are based on petroleum. Gas prices are only part of it. This Petroleum based products List has a partial listing of products made from oil and natural gas. You can see the extent to which Global Peak Oil (and peak natural gas a bit later) will affect the country and the economy. The age of cheap oil is over. The basic sources of energy will cost more to manipulate into power. And there is going to be some serious economic and political pain particularly for the poor. How serious ? No one knows !! It's time for you to get ready.
There are a number of alternative energy sources out there.Coal, Natural Gas, Hydrogen, Oil Shale, Tar Oil Sands, Methane Hydrate, Nuclear Power, Solar Power, Wind Power, Geothermal Power, Hydroelectric Power, Biomass Fuels, Waste to Energy. Each has pros and cons. It will take a combination of energy sources to keep our civilization going. Many energy sources are not suitable for our need for powering personal vehicles. There will be big changes in the area of fuel, vehicles and personal driving habits. The Age of Biomass fuels, hydrogen and LEV's (Light Electric Vehicles) is coming.
About the Author
About The Author:
Steven Raker
GasPrices-USA.com
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