Well, it seems like a long time since the last primary. :blink: Anybody care to guess how they think the PA primary might turn out??

I think Hillary will win but I think it will be fairly close - maybe something like 54% to 46%.

Why do you guys think?

I think you are right, she will win, but it will be close. I wish she would win BIG to stop the mounting undemocratic cries from on high in the DNC for superdelegates to line up behind Obama or risk being labeled by Donna Brazile as "not caring about the party" (which is equal to calling them treasonous in my view). However, I think she will just win by the expected margin of around six points. And I even fear that she may lose due to a surge in newly registered voters who will probably go for Obama.

I love how the Obama camp claims he has brought so many new voters to the process by virtue of his singular charisma. Try it is SEVEN LONG YEARS OF SHRUB that have brought people to the Democratic Party in droves, especially to a candidate with shiny signs sporting "CHANGE". Duh. These voters are young and were only ten when shrub stole his way into power. They have known nothing but shrub, war, shrub, war, shrub...and more shrub. Of course they are enthusiastic about Obama! They are also too young to distinguish between a slick marketing campaign, slick branding, and general slickness, and true idealism. They think Obama is the real deal, but his signs and slogans are hollow.

I pray that Clinton wins and wins BIG. But I agree with you: she'll win but not by too much. Not by enough to shame the DNC into stopping their undemocratic and despicable tactic of accusing any superdelegate who doesn't line up behind Barack of not caring about the party. Last time I checked, the Democratic Party was all about Democratic principles, chief among those being DEMOCRACY and the DEMOCRATIC process itself. So I hope they (the DNC) step aside and LET IT PLAY OUT, for goodness sake!

It seems 180,000 republicans sleepwalkingly hypnotized by Rush LImbo
changed for a day to become democrats to vote for Hillary

If Hillary don't win by over 20, Obama wins.
Hillary was leading by 25 for months and months
anything less is a major slap in her face

They also say PA is the oldest demographic state in the nation
And Hillary's average voter age is 60

We all know the older voters hate change

So I would say HIllary by 19.5 tonight

But PA don't matter anyhow
Hillary could win every delegate and she still has lost the election

Obama won 35 states(including Texas and Missouri, two Hillary tried to get credit for (not to mention NH also).

this baby is finished
Hillary lost.
Send her some crying towels

Let's see how many votes she gets in an important state like North Carolina
(though Hillary and her voters don't think any black voters are Americans in the first place...Hillary is beyond obvious about her racism).
She and Bill would have been great as a plantation master.
(Imagine Bill once thought he was the 1st black president...what a joke that was...what was Bill inhaling when he said that?)

Here is my prediction:

Hillary Clinton will be the democratic "nominee" in 2008.


Senator Obama will win the primaries/caucuses by popular vote, pledged delegates, and by majority of the contests.

Just like Florda 2000. Al Gore won, bush got selected.

What happens after that ?

John McCain wins general election. The neo-con happy hour continues for eight more years. Our soldiers pay the price. Fat Cats get richer by selling oil at $300/barrel.

But I have been wrong before, specially about President Al Gore. Always thought he would run.

If that happens, I hope there are riots in the street and total civil war
Because if the people don't rise up, we are nothing anyhow

If that happens, it will proove the fix is in, and Al Gore knew it was, so he didn't bother

The way the media is smearing him (with new smears of old things) him and Jimmy Carter can be the two greatest living people and no one in power will listen.

Out of all hillary total votes, a significant portion comes from Rush Limbaugh's listeners who pledged to vote for clinton. This is "legal" and nothing can be done about it.

Besides, earlier, a Philadelphia judge turned down a request from voting rights organizations that the closing time be extended for two more hours.

Links:
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/90852/6397422.html
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/poli...ublicans25.html
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/polit..._a_clinton.html

In 2004 Al Franken did something similiar in Ohio

But none of the 180,00 Rush the Vote OPERATION KAOS are going to vote democratic in November. Hillary is such a big fool if she thinks so
(Though if she steals it, it don't make a difference anyhow).

Dictatorship is coming.

It's no surprise though a judge would rule, as it probably is a judge in Hillary's and Rendell's pockets.

I'm so afraid that's going to happen.

Get the hook and yank her off the stage. I sort of liked Hillary at first, but she's talked me out of it and keeps on making me more certain that I will not vote for her....period. :angry:

Nope....Deadlock! Deadlock!

Thank you Hillary


You put it closer tonight.

I don't know what makes you think Hillary would let Gore come in and get it

She surely isn't going to just up and disappear if she won't now

You don't actually think Hillary cares about America or the constitution do you?

She only cares about the corporate war machine continuing like it has for 28 years.
She surely won't willingly allow Al Gore to stop all that.

Read the NY Times is saying

It is time for her to go
(and they supported her).

They are saying she did not accomplish what she needed to tonight and its all getting tiresome.

She's up by 10 points and there's nobody getting 2025 delegates before Denver.

And there's nobody getting out,


Again Thank you!

Everyone is saying that Hillary will tough this out. However, Chuck Todd (MSNBC) said tonight that she has to win 80% of all the delegates up for grabs in the remaining primaries if she's going to have a shot at the nomination. There's no way that's going to happen. Or, she has to keep working on the superdelegates and convince enough of them that Obama is unelectable.

I was hoping for a little more optimism... :rolleyes:

I got home late tonight but I see Hillary is about at 55% to Obama's 45%.

I honestly don't see her winning the nominee unless she either wins big in the rest of the states or at least gets ahead in the popular vote. I could be wrong too. Either way, we've got to focus on getting a Dem in the White House.

Seeing how tonight is turning out - it looks like this race will continue on. On the bright side, that means there's still a chance of the brokered convention. :Y:

We must have posted about the same time, EM. Yes, Hillary's odds are very slim, but I can't imagine her giving up yet - not if there's a chance to keep Obama from getting 2025 and getting the supers on her side.

Andrew, I like your enthusiasm!! :rolleyes:

First of all with her negatives of 52% she's not going to be the nominee. Of course then you see an exit poll out of PA that 50% of the Clinton Supporters will either sit out the general election if Clinton is the nominee or vote for McCain.
If I was a Super Delegate I would go watch Oprah today and realize you have a "Trump Card".
Neither of these two can win the General.

Clay, Hillary could NOT keep Gore out if it came to a brokered convention. If neither candidate could get the needed #'s on the 1st or 2nd ballot, Gore could very well get in and it would very much be legal. ;)

I was just playing around with the delegate calculator on the CNN website. If Clinton were to win the rest of the primaries, plus PA tonight by 56% - 44% (which this is very unlikely but just saying) - she would have 1862 delegates to Obama's 1933. This is not adding in the supers.

If she won 56% of the remaining supers, she would have 2033 and Obama would have 2073. Now if they both got over 2025, would Obama automatically get it since he would have a higher number? I would assume so.

But without the supers included, neither one would have the needed 2025, which would make a brokered convention more likely. :blink:

Like I said, I just don't see Hillary getting out until all is said and done.

Why do I think?
Mostly, I guess, because it would be really hard for me NOT to.
You??

:D :D

The problem Clay doesn't want to admit to is that although not many people like Hillary they also don't like Obama. I am starting to wonder if he would start to be a problem as Gore's running mate. I am beginning to hope for someone like Colin Powell instead. Whatever, after tonight I would like someone to tell me how Clinton and Obama can win independently or even together in the General.

texan- It is impossible both would get over 2025
There must be something wrong in the calculation

Obama only needs about 25% of the remaining undecided super delegates to win.
Obama is going to only need between 70 and 95 superdelegates out of the last 300 to 325 superdelegates, based on all projections

And the % assumes Hillary wins all the remaining.
Obama is going to slaughter Hillary in 2 states, meaning she will need then another 10% or more of the few remaining states.
While Obama keeps picking up more and more

As for Powell, he lied to start the Iraq war. Gore would never forgive him for that, it would be a major sellout. And Powell has never indicated he would be on a ticket, his wife forbid it years ago.Powell himself basically has endorsed Obama.

As for Obama as VP, I ask again, how would Hillary go for that? It makes no common sense. It is not logical (as Mr. Spock would say).

And Dean already indicated this is not going to August.

This looking for a backup is part of the reason Hillary has stayed long as she has...it toys with people's minds and then look what happens.

I would watch closely for Hillary running 3rd party. Look out if that happens.

And many people DO like Obama. That is why he has signed up record # of young voters, unheard of in the last 30 years. Those young voters for the most part are not Gore for President fans either. And if they get disillusioned, and the Black voters get disillusioned, what exactly base is there? And you chance losing those disillusioned voters forever.

I would also like to know, with Gore's book coming out later now, when exactly would he have time to go on a book signing tour? He would then be in the middle of a campaign.

People are not putting 2 and 2 together.

The primaries are going great. Now, it's time for Obama to win one. We need to keep the pattern: One for him, and one for her, etc. They will continue beating each other up, and in the end they will hurt themselves. I'm thinking a Gore/Kerry ticket. But, still thinking on that one.

You caught my typo. :P Obviously, this election is having an effect on my mental state. :wacko: :lol: If it weren't for the fact that I am wanting a brokered convention so badly, I would wish for this drama to be over!! :spikey:

Well, you should have your wish. Obama should win North Carolina and Clinton is supposed to take Indiana in the next round.

I kinda like a Gore/Boxer ticket or maybe just for Clay how about Gore and Edwards together?

:laugh:

I hadn't given much thought into VP's for Gore if he were to get in. I guess I was kinda assuming it would be Gore/Obama. However, Gore/Boxer would be a good combo.

I don't think Clay would go for Gore/Edwards. :laugh:

Clay, I redid the calculations and it still comes to them both getting over 2025, if I plug in 56% for Hillary and 44% for Obama. Hillary would actually get 2048, though, and Obama would have 2079. I overestimated the numbers for Hillary just to show that she would still be considerably behind, even if she won the rest of the primaries. It would end up in the hands of the super delegates in a situation like that.

The point I'm trying to make is that even if Hillary is not able to catch up with Obama, all she really has to do is keep him from getting 2025 to be able to make her case to the super delegates.

However, it would seem that Hillary would at least have to get ahead in the popular vote in order to make a good argument.

2008 Election will be Stolen

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0804/S00297.htm

Senator Clinton appears intent on losing the election should she be miraculously nominated.

IF it's stolen, HIllary will be President.
She and Bush are team mates.

Hillary will NOT investigate the Bush's. Didn't do it 1993, won't do it now.

Bush family would be happy with Hillary.

I truly don't want Hillary as our nominee, nor do I want Mccain or any other Republican so I feel a little like a vampire or a cannibal when I say last nights result was the best Gore fans could hope for.

Obama didn't (again) knock her out of the race, and his inability to win another big industrial state has the super delegates worried. This negative (and not Wright, flagpins, Ayers or poor bowling) is a serious one for the party to consider.

Clinton keeps pursuing the destroy Obama at all costs strategy. She's a fighter (which people like) but she is also perceived as a mainpulative power-hungry candidate who wouls step over the bodiesof friends and family to get the job (which people hate)

Neither candidate are as attractive or have anywhere near the approval ratings they started out with.

I do think the party is now more in trouble, more in need of a third party compromise slate than ever before. Maybe we need a Presidential candidate who doesnt so blatantly thirst for this position...

I just feel a little sick and maybe a little selfish thinking that last nights results were just great for a Gore supporter.

PS Anyone see socialist Bernie Sanders on Colbert? I like this guy, shame he could never be VP.

Just brought up another reason to have Gore as the nominee. The Media as well as others are more likely to scrutinize an event that has already happened. I feel one of the strongest points for Gore running is we'll put the stolen 2000 election "under the microscope" again for future improprieties. It makes sense there would be more of an awareness in the election coming up with someone who this has already happened to. Even if the MSM wanted to ignore it, they couldn't.

Hillary won by under 10% yet the media is reporting it at over

Imagine if you bet (James always says to bet) over/under and you went with fuzzy math like HIllary is, the bookie would break your kneecaps for this deception

You just can't give it up. Okay, let's say Obama becomes the nominee. Are all these Clinton Supporters going to flock over to vote for him? How's he going to win without them?
This is even a question about supporting Gore, do the math pal....
This is over with.

Man! I thank goodness that Hillary won by 10% yesterday. If Obama had won, it would have been all over. God, that would have depressed me beyond all measure. Obama v. McCain. I would have just tuned out everything after that, between now and four years from now. Then I would come out from under the bed and check out if the world would still be there.

Thank you, Pennsylvania, home of my dad's side of the family for many, many, MANY generations. You are the heart of America.

SHE DID NOT WIN BY 10%

SHE WON UNDER 10 PERCENT

STOP THE LIES
STOP THE DISTORTION
STOP THE SPIN

HILLARY DID NOT WIN BY 10 PERCENT

Try telling a bookie that, you would get a concrete slab and a dunk in the ocean
(or what the Clinton's did to Vince Foster)

It is people like you that I guarantee I will vote for McCain if Hillary steals it, just to offset YOUR vote personally. No other reason but that hanging chad.

I cannot stand racism anywhere.

Hillary decieves just like Bush did in 2000

clitnon 54.69
Obama 45.31

that is NOT 10 percent
that is 9.38, which is UNDER TEN PERCENT

SO STOP THE LYING

How UNGORE like and UNAMERICAN

a vote for Hillary is a vote AGAINST AL GORE and what Gore believes in.

Clay, take it easy or go take your meds.

And stop the racism talk. Nobody is calling you sexist because you don't support Clinton.

I would happily vote for a woman

Matter of fact, I will vote for Condie if she runs against Hillary

Condie has lied less than Hillary
And at end of day, Condie is more liberal than Hillary is (especially after Hillary sold all women a bill of goods after defending a cheat, and then now saying she is altering her abortion view...makes you wonder just who Hillary would put on the Supreme Court...we might just get another Scalia.)

Christ, what a choice...Hillary or Condi and whichever one lies less.

OK, You're smart and apparently have a lot of time on your hands....

Why don't you stop wallowing in this Obama bullshit and figure out a way we can get Gore elected?

Do something constructive.