Good Sunday morning-

I am curious as to what people here actually believe will be what happens

(NOT what you want to see happen, yes, we all want to see Gore become President, that is a given here.)

But as we are all well-politically educated, in the know, have much knowledge on inner workings and all

What as of this morning, do you actually think will be the outcome for the Democratic party/ independent/ leading to the conventions and then into November.

And give % as to how sure you feel your prediction will be

(sort of like the 1 to 10 scale McLaughlin group has each Sunday morning)

(again, not what you want but what you actually feel will happen.)

Dems. self-destruct, McCain wins. :(

This is what I truly believe.

When Gore goes on his next book tour in a few weeks time he will be greeted by calls for him to get into the race as he is the only one that can prevent the Democrats self-destructing. I would give that a 85% chance.

I think he will make Obama his VP - I would give that a 75% chance.

I think he will make Hillary his Secretary of State - I would give than a 40% chance.

I think Gore will win the election against McCain - I would give that a 52% chance. I think the GOP is going to have some swift-boat like TV ads attacking the crediblity of global warming and that will make it a competitive race.

It's so difficult for me to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen. I'm sure that what I want and how I see things influences how I look at the odds. But I'll take a stab anyway.

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will split the remaining primaries. Senator Obama will maintain his delegate lead and win the nomination on the first round- 75%. The Democrats don't pick a first round nominee and turn to Gore-5%. Al Gore will endorse Obama-75%. Gore will endorse Obama if Barack is the nominee-99%.

Barack Obama will select an older white guy to run on the ticket as vice-president- 80%.

Mainstream Media will try and turn the election into a racial argument-85%. A lot of stuff will come out showing John McCain's ties to lobbyists are even worse than we thought-70%. McCain's temper will cause him problems-75%. Obama will run a smarter, more creative campaign-90%. Obama will win over McCain-80%.

Al Gore will be named to the US Supreme Court-30%



:spikey:

For your interest this is what the betting markets say right now is likely to happen. There is no better way to actually follow what is happening.

Obama as the DEM nominee 72.3% chance. (It was 89% 2 weeks ago).
Hillary as the DEM nominee 28.5%
Gore as the DEM nominee 1.8%. (that's an improvement - it was 0.5% a few weeks ago).

Gore as DEM VP candidate 9.2%.

Obama as the next President 44% - and falling fast.
Hillary as the next President 18% - and rising.
McCain as the next President - 39.2% and rising.
Gore as the next President 1.8% (isnt it interesting that betting markets are effectively saying that if Gore is the DEM candidate there is a 100% chance he will be the President. This contract also allows for him to be the Pres as an Independent however).
Chances of a Brokered Convention - 19%.
Chances of a revote in Michigan before end of June - 84%.
Chances of a revote in Florida before the end of June 19%.

If you want to check it out these are two of the websites - www.intrade.com and www.betfair.com I DONT WANT TO BE SEEN PROMOTING THESE SITES BECAUSE ITS ILLEGAL FOR US CITIZENS TO BET ON ELECTIONS.

I feel that Gore will come in at the convention, and I will go on the record and say that Hillary will not be in his administration at all. Bill and Hillary's treatment of Gore in 2000 wil come back and bite them.

Gore/Patterson

Here's Derbyshire with the National Review again on Gore.

Nominating Al
John Derbyshire
03/18/08

As I've been telling you for nearly a year now (why won't you LISTEN?) the 44th POTUS will be Al Gore. It merely remains to work out the nomination details. A reader gives it a try.

Obama will go into the convention with a pledged delegate lead sizable enough that the superdelegates won't dare give the nomination to Hillary. The Pastor Wright scandal will make them equally unwilling to give it to Obama. So they'll deadlock the convention and then Al steps in: he'll convince both Hillary and Obama to throw their support behind him in exchange for SCOTUS nods for both of them when Ginsburg and Stevens retire (which they'll certainly be confirmed for, given Senate comity and somewhere between 55 and 60 Senate Democrats). He'll give Edwards AG in exchange for his handful of delegates and take it all. Max Baucus will be his running mate so that, with a Gore-Baucus ticket, Rush Limbaugh will not be able to resist playing the Gorbasm/Empire Strikes Back theme from back in the 80s when Gorbachev was still around — which will make Gore cool for the first time in his life.

I don't know.

I like this answer.

Clay, you asked for this...

I predict that we Democrats will spend sooooo much time second guessing and making random predictions while we fight over trivialities that Neocon Radio & Karl Rove will slide More Troops McCain into the Oval Office on a sliding board coated with Oil Company profits!

Does THAT answer your question? :?:

By the way, I KNOW already you didn't like THIS answer because I am clairvoyant as well! ;)

Keep it up. They're going to be wildly successful at this. <_<

[bump the porn]

The polling results that some Democrats would rather vote for McCain than the second place primary finisher gives a real rationale for Gore to step into the race. The superdelegates can make this happen at the convention (20% chance).

Let's hope not, we can not tolerate another four years of hell............four more years of republicans. :bad:

Oh, I agree with you AGIML. I just don't think that my "hoping" will make it so. :!: