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Title: List of Superdelegates


NYPopulist - March 11, 2008 08:31 PM (GMT)
Should the circumstances arise, it looks like half the work is already done for us:

List of all Superdelegates

They are also neatly divided by who they support. Contact information is often found in external links as well.

Most of us know that in order for Hillary to legitimately present a case to the superdelegates, she has to win the national popular vote because there's no way she can win the pledged delegate race. Including estimates for caucus votes, Obama currently has ~700,000 vote lead. With that in mind, a SurveyUSA poll just came out for Pennsylvania. The results? 55-36 Clinton, a 19 point lead.

Now, based on the turnout in Ohio and Illinois, - two similarly sized states - I estimate turnout in PA to be around 2,300,000. Factoring in a 19-20 point victory for Clinton, which my gut says is her ceiling in the state, results in her closing the popular vote gap by about 450,000. How does she make up the remaining 250,000 votes? That's what the Clinton campaign needs to figure out.

I only bring this up because for there to be a deadlocked convention, Hillary needs to somehow start convincing supers to side with her. This may be the only way she can do it.

Alpha Gore Omega - March 11, 2008 09:29 PM (GMT)
Hi NYPopulist

Thanks for posting that list. Hillary can catch Obama on the popular vote if their is a second vote in Florida and Michigan and it is a mail-in ballot. That will substantially increase the turn-out and she will win those state's like she did before. If Hillary can get just ahead of Obama in the popular vote and Obama stays ahead of Hillary in the pledged delegates then we have the perfect impasse.

Gore is inevitable.
Alpha-Gore-Omega

NYPopulist - March 11, 2008 09:35 PM (GMT)
You're absolutely right - Florida and Michigan are her best bets to make up serious ground in the popular vote. In her 17% victory in Florida alone, she won by ~300,000 votes. In what I think will turn out to be a brilliant strategic move, Floridians and Michiganders may very well just vote for Hillary because she has been most vocal about defending their place at the convention.

I don't mean to be a Debbie Downer, but I think the *only* way Gore has a chance of coming out as the nominee is if Obama wins the pledged delegate race and Hillary wins the national popular vote. Any other way and Hillary really has no leverage with the superdelegates that she so desperately needs.

Alpha Gore Omega - March 11, 2008 09:45 PM (GMT)
www.draftgore.com have taken down the message that they are suspending their campaign and they have posted this:

Al Gore to the Rescue?

The buzz is everywhere: in Newsweek, the New York Post, political blogs galore. With the Democratic nomination most likely unresolved until the convention and the battle between Clinton and Obama becoming increasingly acrimonious, many Democrats are beginning to consider the possibility of reaching out to a candidate untainted by the primary fight who could unite all Democrats and lead the party to victory in November.

More and more, Al Gore's name is floated for the job: a man with experience unmatched by any of the Democrats running for president, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, and winner of the popular (and arguably electoral vote) for president in 2000.

Below are some recent articles on this subject:

Newsweek: The Search for a way out of the Democrats' diemma

CQ Politics: Could Gore be the Nominee?

Huffington Post: Gore to the Rescue

Southern Ledger: Is A Gore Scenario Emerging?

Huffington Post: Al de Gore

New York Post: Only Gore Can Stop a Meltdown

Huffington Post: Gore, More Than Before

Newsweek: Al Gore to the Rescue?

Alpha Gore Omega - March 11, 2008 09:46 PM (GMT)
Hi NYPopulist

I agree entirely and I think the scenario you outlined is inevitable.

Gore is inevitable.
Alpha-Gore-Omega

earthmother - March 12, 2008 02:25 AM (GMT)
Good work, NYP. Questions also found a great site for the superdelegates: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/su...t-endorsed.html

Questions - March 12, 2008 04:55 AM (GMT)
According to the Votersunite news roundup for the day, in an opinion by it's editor and an Elections Supervisor in a news story:

"Another good reason that a mail-in primary do-over cannot happen in Florida? It is against the law. State law only allows referendums to be on a mail ballots and doesn’t allow for candidates to be named on ballots via stamp and carrier. An executive order or a law change would be needed to allow the presidential primary to be recast. "


http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2008/mar/10...tical-mail--re/

"Democrats might want to hold off before giving the stamp of approval.

The Lee County Supervisor of Elections has serious reservations about a proposed idea to let Florida Democrats recast their vote in the presidential primary by mail.

Sharon Harrington said she is willing to do whatever the state requests of her office. But she warns that a mail-in ballot idea to decide Florida’s Democratic delegates to the national convention would be costly, complicated and currently against state law."


There was a proposal for the state party to bypass the state election system and do employ a direct mail company. But will the law against voting for candidates by mail ballot still apply?




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