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Title: Ice age maybe


pooman2008 - January 4, 2008 07:22 AM (GMT)
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The Paraclete - January 6, 2008 01:34 AM (GMT)
Hi Yorkie! Come on! Certainly YOU can do better! Better to get you banned again that is! :laugh:

Follow the standards and rules or get lost!

scalbers - January 6, 2008 02:14 PM (GMT)
Unfortunate this was deleted as I thought I'd get some practice with debating global warming. I often see the question though about the ice age predictions of the 1970s and whether that casts doubt on global warming predictions. I think if you have a good sense of proportion and understanding you'd realize that global warming is much the more pressing concern of the 21st century.

It's true there was some cooling in the mid-20th century. This was partly caused by weaker solar radiation (probably), as well as more aerosols in the atmosphere. There is also a multi-millenial timescale forcing towards cooling based on the Earth's orbit (Milankovich cycles) that caused some concern.

Over the late 20th century and as we enter the 21st century, we see that warming is much more the concern. Solar radiation output has stabilized. Aerosols too are being cleaned up a bit. Even the long-term Milankovich cycles loom as less of a factor if you consider the relatively circular orbit we are in at this time. So we are left with the increasing amount of greenhouse gases overwhelming the other factors. Since a significant fraction of the greenhouse gases (as well as stored heat in the oceans) can linger for centuries or even more, global warming is really the biggest issue. This is true both in the size and duration of the impact. Add in the difficulty of reversing ice melting, and the permanence of species extinction and we do have this developing planetary emergency.

Even if temporary cooling happens again with either solar radiation variations or volcanic activity, we'd just see a delay in global warming's effects. Global warming would subsequently come back strongly due to its long term nature. Ocean acidification is a second effect that is important with respect to CO2 emissions.

The Paraclete - January 6, 2008 11:30 PM (GMT)
Scalbers, I know you like to hone your skills...but NOT against THIS troll!...Try doing it with somebody who DOESN'T have to he their heads examined for CONTENTS! ;)




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