http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/...004/9538335.htmRepublican wannabes use convention to start the 2008 campaign
BY STEVEN THOMMA
Knight Ridder Newspapers
NEW YORK - (KRT) - They're talking `04 at the Republican National Convention, but just below the surface, they're thinking `08.
Keenly aware that George Bush and Dick Cheney will never run again, a slew of Republicans are using the convention to start angling for the party's 2008 nomination.
Their opportunities to schmooze ranged from prime-time speeches Monday by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain to a get-acquainted lunch with the press Thursday by Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
In between, a dozen or more potential candidates are taking every chance to impress the delegates, activists and donors who could propel one of them to the nomination four years hence.
"This is a free-for-all," said Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla. "This is a great theater, a great showcase for those candidates, and yet they do have to be mindful and careful," lest they be perceived as improperly stealing this year's spotlight from President Bush.
"People are testing the waters," added Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. "The body's not cold. Nobody's even sick yet. But they're ready."
No one dares suggest how he might shift the party in the post-Bush years. Too much depends not only on whether Bush is re-elected, but also on how successful his second term might be.
But the convention offers too tempting an opportunity for early posturing, what with all the party's power brokers in one place. While television cameras focus largely on the convention hall, would-be candidates are meeting with influential insiders at receptions and parties from breakfast until the wee hours.
At a reception hosted by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, supporters interrupted Giuliani during a speech Sunday afternoon, urging him to run in `08. "We're not going to think about `08," a broadly grinning Giuliani responded.
At a party hosted by the Log Cabin Republicans, a gay group, supporters burst into applause when their executive director introduced New York Gov. George Pataki by saying, "To some of us in this room, President Pataki sounds damned nice."
Many featured speakers at the convention include potential 2008 candidates in addition to Giuliani, McCain, Pataki and Romney. Among them: Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee and Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
One, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, could run only if the Constitution were amended to allow a foreign-born president. That's highly unlikely before the 2008 election.
Other possible 2008 candidates include Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Sen. George Allen of Virginia, Gov. Bill Owens of Colorado, Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.
The most compelling among them is McCain.
He ran in 2000, losing the nomination to Bush. But he did win the New Hampshire primary, and in several states he demonstrated an ability to draw support from independents and some Democrats.
He's the only possible candidate for 2008 who's run before, no small factor in a party that likes the familiar. Over almost 40 years, Republicans four times have nominated candidates who had run before - Richard Nixon in 1968, Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Bob Dole in 1996. They've nominated two first-time candidates, but both had well-known names: Gerald Ford was the incumbent president in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000 was the son of a president.
The biggest challenge to a second McCain campaign would be his health. He would be 72 on Election Day 2008, which would make him the oldest president ever elected. Moreover, he's had recurring bouts of malignant melanoma, a potentially fatal form of skin cancer.
Also, as a man who relishes challenging his party on topics such as tax cuts and campaign finance, McCain is suspect to many conservative Republicans. He's spent this campaign supporting Bush, which could earn him some points from conservatives, but maintained his independent appeal by refusing to criticize fellow Vietnam veteran and Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.
But he'd be far from a slam dunk to win the nomination.
The other most intriguing candidate would be Jeb Bush, who skipped the convention in Florida in the wake of Hurricane Charley. If elected, he would firmly establish the Bush political dynasty as the country's pre-eminent political family, surpassing the Adams, Harrisons, Roosevelts and Kennedys.
Oddly, Bush might have an easier time if his name were different.
More interested in policy than politics, the president's younger brother has built a solid base in the diverse and pivotal battleground of Florida. Despite a massive Democratic effort to defeat him in 2002, he coasted to a 56 percent to 44 percent win en route to a second term. That alone would make him a contender for his party's nomination.
But more than any other Republican, his fate is tied to that of his brother. Should George W. Bush win, the success of his second term (the third Bush term) would determine if there's any hunger for another Bush. Should George W. Bush lose, it probably would take more than four years to restore the luster to the brand name.
The reason for the overt speculation about 2008 isn't borne of disrespect for Bush or Cheney. Rather, it's an acknowledgement that they're the first major party ticket in nearly a century all but certain not to run again.
If he wins, Bush is barred by the Constitution's 22nd Amendment from running again. If he loses, he's unlikely to seek the office again. Through American history, only one man has lost the office and won it back four years later: Grover Cleveland in 1892. None of the five presidents defeated since then, including Bush's father, has run again.
Win or lose, Cheney won't seek the top job in four years as so many vice presidents and vice presidential nominees have done. He's suffered four heart attacks and will be 67 in 2008. "This really is my last job," Cheney has said. "I'm not running for anything else."
The last time a party nominated a ticket all but certain that neither man would run again was probably in 1916, when Democrats nominated Woodrow Wilson for a second and presumably final term, along with Vice President Thomas Marshall, who had no role in the Wilson administration and no political future after it.
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© 2004, Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.