Here is a series of comments I read on DailyKos (from someone named RHFactor) which give the most sensible explanation for Gore's refusal to utter a Shermanesque statement and rule out a run. I suppose he could give up a few primary states and announce sometime in the first or second week of November and still take the whole thing in a landslide. Hope he is giving a stirring speech right now in Chicago. Here are the comments:

This is my take on which way wind could blow (cheap reference to the Windy City :)

(1) He has used the same

"a different kind of campaign" "have fallen out of love with politics" "have no plans to run" "highest and best use of my time & energy"

talking points for months.

(2) But where he's been equally consistent in his answers and language over the past 6 months or so, when asked who he would endorse for President if he didn't run, is here -- but we rarely hear about these two key points. They get drowned out by the overall noise of "will you or won't you run?":

(1) He has said pretty strongly in the past that he would not endorse any candidate who voted for the Iraq Authorization (that gets very specific re exclusions), and

(2) He could not not support any candidate who did not wake up and place Global Warming and Climate Crisis as his/her #1 priority, not #2 or somewhere on the list, but #1.

Now, we know none of these candidates will do that. So to me that is the only wedge that pries open some wiggle room from him. To me, I feel he would prefer not to run, and wishes inside that one of the candidates would step up to support the heavy lifting he's been doing since rededicating himself to the "wakeup call" of his slide show, which then became the movie -- allowing him to concentrate on interacting with the science community and other nations -- while The President pushes and leads the agenda in the USA.

Whether or not he sticks to the strict criteria he has stated for endorsing, it seems that his reason for not being finite about running or not are as follows:

(a) He really IS focused right now on parlaying the critical momentum he's built up over the past 2 years with his slide show presentations, movie recognition, LIVE EARTH awareness-creating event, and now the Nobel Prize. He knows that to step into US politics right now would really dissipate that momentum, especially right now at this moment when he just won this prestigious prize. It's his blue chip of persuasion in his WORLD campaign to get governmental cooperation. So he isn't going to screw up this whole life-path by splitting his attention and focus during thus "parlay" window of time where there's "heat" on the Global Warming issue due to the int'l prestige of the Nobel prize.

(B) As many have pointed out in past, the mystery serves him by keeping him in the news -- without the tarnish and mudslinging that would instantly attach if he were to announce. He's riding that crest for all its got... even though that trump card is starting to wear thin rapidly -- with people starting to feel a sense of "Allright Al, either "s*** or get off the pot; you've been skillfully ducking the question for 6-9 months and it's now officially tiresome" (and could potentially start to diminish his strength to shake up the waters, should he get in).

© I think he is probably, behind the scenes, trying to influence the current candidates to ramp up their positioning of this issue as a #1 priority. It's a win-win for him. SHould he not run, he's got these surrogates pushing the agenda dear to his heart. And if he does get in, he's got a very strong "excuse", which is:

"I look around, and I see none of these candidates taking this matter seriously -- I had hoped they would, and this is why I have stayed in the background on this, since we need a full coordinated response to this crisis. But I am profoundly disappointed, if not angry, that they are simply not putting their focus where it belongs. I've worked my whole life for this, and the time is NOW. Since they have pretty much proven they lack the strength and conviction to make this a campaign issue of the utmost priority, I have decided I will seek the office of the President to ensure this matter is given critical attention of not only our government, but our entire citizenry... Therefore, I am announcing today that ... "

But he can't play that card yet -- if that is indeed a card he would really play.

Because with this watershed moment of the Nobel, in order to make that later move STICK and have the rocket-power it needs to just blow open the whole process, he's got to give them the fair chance to "respond" to the urgency of this critical issue now ratified by the award of the Nobel Prize.

(d) Someone at dkos mentioned the December climate crisis world meetings, about which I know next to nothing (Nuevo Liberal??)... but the argument was made here that THAT would be the final timing moment for Gore -- he will have seen by then if the OTHERS have stepped up to bat, or if they are neglecting the issue, just as COngress has for decades, a fact he laments very strongly and unmistakably in "An Inconvenient Truth".

(e) Now, Gore has improved immensely in his political acumen. The entrepreneurial capitalism world has taught him a LOT about how "players" play and take risks. Playing it safe brings little to no reward. You've got to be able to go for broke -- and this is where that FastCompany profile of Gore from a few months back comes inot play.

From that interview, it became crystal that Gore has blossomed and thrived in the realm of entrepreneurs -- a completely different arena from politics -- where they respect and are attracted to visionary thinking (and provide resources to cultivate it), whereas in the Political Arena, where he threw his hat so many decades ago, to try to advance this cause, is characterized by the antithesis of visionary ideas and risk-taking. He said he's felt like he was in the pre-dawn light in political realm, where everyone was so far behind the curve, and disinterested in catching up -- since politics is the ultimate SAFE game, where you avoid risks.

So, my point is he has learned how to play his cards a lot smarter, because in terms of strategy, the Beltway Boys and Girls can't compete with the brainpower and motivation of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs.

The question is: IS Gore maximizing his press, while minimizing the press assaults, all for the sake of maiking a gigantic splash SHOULD he say "I'm in"... ?

Summarizing, he will not jeopardize the juice of the Nobel win by dissipating it and comingling it with the trivial (to him) HORSERACE stage of the Presidential campaign process. (Another place where he has been consistent. "I wouldn't need 500 days to run a campaign" and "It's all a big waste at this point".) gears if he felt none of the others are really going to do anything about it.

So don't expect anything other than the same talking points as above -- with the possible addtion of a direct challenge to the Presidential Candidates to step up to the plate and make this a big priority.

THAT would be his salvo that is telling, that then starts the clock ticking as to whether or not they answer the call. If so, he's probably going to let them run with it (but the endorsement criteria beccome very tricky then -- will he hold to them?). And if not, then the end of the year is the time one throws out the old and in with the new. And he could start the new Year with a fury unleashed... if my analysis has any currency at all ... I could be missing the boat

That gets very specific, and rules pretty much everyone out. The only one that I could see fitting that description is Richardson, and even that is hard to say. He didn't vote for the resolution (Was and still is a Governor), speaks about energy/global warming in practically every speech, and has the boldest plans to rectify the problem and make us energy independent.

I do not expect to order-out for Pizza next Friday.
But I'm not ruling it out.

Listen I think a decision has simply not been made. We are all getting anxious because it's Show-Time. The stage is built, seats filled, microphone tested, spotlights are searching.

The star has not decided that he wants to step on the stage because there is no going back.

If we build it, he will come. Hard to know if that will prove truth, but for now that's what I believe.

....

Editing because I'm googling the press and it is rolling with the "Rules It Out" http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&um=1&ie=...%22rules+out%22 lead.

All of this comes from the same "I don't have plans to be a candidate again," Norwegian television interview, from which Gore said exactly the same thing as he always had. With these leads rolling (lordy I see Forbes on the list now), hearing "I am not ruling anything out" would be nice, if nothing else for now.

Yeh, Olbermann did it too.

SHOCK THE WORLD AL!

SHOCK THE WORLD WITH AN OCTOBER SURPRISE!




please