| QUOTE (dad6994 @ Aug 20 2007, 06:48 AM) |
| The math was just wrong and Al followed along? NASA Admits Error; 1934 is Warmest Year Steve McIntyre, a statistician and a global warming skeptic recently set an email to the Goddard Institute of Space Science (GISS) noting an apparent error in the US annual temperature record. The error was due to incorrect correction for newer measurement instruments deployed in recent years. GISS acknowledged the error and now 1934 is the warmest year on record not 1998. The error was relatively small, on the order of 0.2 degrees Centigrade. In the grand scheme of global warming that is an enormous error. Realclimate.org, a blog for climate scientists, addressed the error in a post mentioning that while the error means that the temperature records for the US will change, the global mean temperature is not affected. The correction in the US temperature records may be minor but is creating quite a stir in the climate change debate. While real climate views this as a tempest in a teapot, the skeptics view is that more corrections are likely. With McIntyre's latest find, an air of intrigue is added to the debate. Climateaudit.org, McIntyre's website has been attacked and access is denied to all. This is not the first attempted sabotage of the site, but thus far the most successful. What does this mean to global warming followers? That the science may not be settled. The enormous amount a data collected to determine millions of years of climate history is now suspect. Proxy data, data from glacial ice cores, tree rings, sea sediment and other sources, are use to build pre-historical temperature reconstructions. Averaging all these proxies is a huge statistical process. Michael Mann, the climate scientist credited with the famous hockey stick chart used in the press so often to illustrate the rapid rise in global temperatures, is not a statistician. The discovery of the error in the US historical temperature record does not mean that global warming is not happening or that man's activities have no impact on global climate. It does mean that predicting temperature and sea level rise a hundred years in the future is not a simple task. See the Realclimate and Climateaudit (once the site is online again) to follow the story. |