IRAQ, OIL, GLOBAL WARMING, ETHANOL, AND A WINDY SOLUTION

In response to a concern for the availability of oil and natural gas, government has given us Iraq. In response to concern for ‘energy’ availability and Earth warming, government has given us the ethanol from corn program. Neither Iraq nor ethanol represents a solution; wind energy now ready for implementation is a solution. Read on--

ETHANOL, ALTERNATE TO FOSSIL FUELS?

The ethanol from corn program was the invention of Vice President Cheney and the secret energy task force. Politically it is perfect:
* The fossil fuel interests like it since it is big user of fuels and petroleum feedstock, and the ethanol production quantity is too small to threaten their markets.
* The red states like it since it keeps their lands in production and makes jobs.
* The industrial farming interests like it since use of fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides is increased and the guaranteed crop demand enhances profits.
* The transportation sector likes it since a lot of bulk materials need rail and motor transport.
* The Congress likes it since it enhances campaign contributions and it can be touted as an alternative fuel that is supposed to get us out of the Middle East; it is easy to present and defend.
* The voting public likes it since it gives a secure feeling about the SUV and suggests lower gasoline prices.
* The auto industry likes it since it implies business as usual and ethanol is easy to accommodate.

ETHANOL COMPARED - Ethanol is a fuel. To get any work out of a fuel it must be burned in an engine. Nominal engine efficiency is 30%. It will take about three times the fuel energy to generate a quantity of electrical energy. Electrical energy has the highest utility; it does work at nearly 100% efficiency without a change in form.
The ethanol system does not capture much solar energy. Solar voltaic cells capture 100 times the energy captured in the growth of corn and produce electrical power directly. A high yield corn crop is demanding of the soils requiring fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides, plus fields with adequate humus and moisture. The corn ethanol system produces 500 gallons of ethanol per acre per year. A 5-megawatt wind turbine on the acre produces electricity that can make 500,000 gallons of gasoline energy equivalent in hydrogen gas fuel per year, requires no irrigation, has no emissions, uses little labor and does not compete with food production for resources.
JOBS PROGRAM - The ethanol motor fuel from corn is dollar-wise very expensive, and is an environmentally costly un-sustainable jobs program having no beneficial effect on motor fuel supply. Ethanol is un-sustainable since it competes with food production for critical resources and depends on fossil fuels for operations. That is the good news; the bad news is the hype and very large resource investment in ethanol takes the nation’s attention away from the need to implement a carbon free, emissions free energy system with capacity to actually meet US energy needs.
MOTOR FUELS NEED - The US currently uses 160 billion gallons of motor fuel yearly. 35 gallons of gasoline is produced from each barrel of oil. So you get 160 billion gallons of gasoline yearly from 4.6 billion barrels of oil used yearly. 4.6 billion barrels of oil yearly is 12.5 million barrels of oil daily. This is what the US imports daily. If the US auto fleet gas mileage were doubled we would only have to import 6.25 million barrels of oil daily.
U.S. PROJECTED ETHANOL CAPACITY IS TRIVIAL compared with the US motor fuel requirement. By 2012 the projected ethanol production is 7.5 billion gallons per year. This is 5.9 billion gallons in gasoline energy equivalent. The US now uses 160 billion gallons of fossil based motor fuel each year. With a 1.5% per year growth, US motor fuel use in 2012 will increase by 12 billion gallons per year for a total of 172 billion gallons per year. The 5.9 billion gallons of ethanol in gasoline equivalent is just 3% of need and does not even match US growth increment.

ETHANOL FROM CORN IS AN ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DRAG ON THE NATION

ETHANOL IS NOT GREEN OR SUSTAINABLE - The US ethanol program is not sustainable since it consumes critical resources in quantities and of value exceeding the value of the ethanol product. The US ethanol program does not expand the availability of fuels; it only alters the form of the fuels consumed in its manufacturing process. And the ethanol output is a fraction of the fossil fuels used in its manufacture.
PEAKING WORLD OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION increases all fuel prices as fuel shortages develop. Increasing fossil fuel cost increases ethanol cost. When fossil fuel shortages cause the need for rationing, the ethanol effort, being a net consumer of fuel, will be on the bottom of the list. Also use of corn crop to make motor fuel competes with use of corn for animal feed and human consumption. The current high price of corn has already caused increases in the price of food dependent on corn. No corn will be used to produce motor fuels when climate change or aquifer depletion limits arable land.
ETHANOL COSTS TOO MUCH - There is price pressure on ethanol production at this time; the US government pays a 41-cent per ethanol gallon subsidy now. Additional economic protection of the US ethanol program is given by a 54-cent per gallon tariff on imported Brazilian ethanol. The tariff confirms the US ethanol program is a jobs program having nothing to do with providing an alternative fuel in quantity. The tariff has nothing to do with protecting a new industry either. Ethanol production from corn is not an emerging new industry; corn farming is a mature technology and ethanol refining from corn has been done for 20+ years. This means that ethanol from corn production dollar costs and energy costs have been known before the ethanol motor fuel effort began. This makes the quality of leadership applied to the US energy policy suspect.
ETHANOL IS FOSSIL FUEL BASED - Ethanol refineries fuelled by natural gas are switching to coal because of the high and volatile price of natural gas. Corn crop is a low-density resource and cannot be piped, coal cannot be piped and ethanol cannot be piped. All require rail and road transport. Transport requires labor for operation and maintenance of equipment and fossil fuels for energy. Labor represents a fossil fuel user since each person employed operates an automobile, maintains a home, etc.
MORE ENERGY IS INPUT TO THE ETHANOL REFINERY than is contained in the ethanol product. Consider the two refinery processes; wet mill and dry mill. This has to do with the moisture content of the corn grain at input to the refinery; dry input being more efficient at the refinery than wet corn grain input. The 1995 national average dry mill uses as much energy in the refinery process as is contained in the ethanol produced. This is 0% efficiency. The 1995 wet mill national average uses more energy in the refining process than is contained in the ethanol produced for a 22% loss. Therefore ethanol refinery process has a neutral to negative energy balance. When the energy, represented by the corn grain that is input to the refinery is added to that process, the ethanol from corn system cannot begin to fuel itself with its product. That means the energy use efficiency is higher if the fossil fuels are just used directly. The carbon dioxide production is less too.
Energy and costs for corn growing include labor, fuel, fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides, and equipment consumed in the growing and preparation of the corn for input to the refinery. This must include as well the cost for fuel, equipment and labor to return to the fields the leaves, stalks and distillation solids necessary to sustain the land for corn crop farming. This must include as well resources expended to complete treatment of distillation water and other wastes. More energy and costs are incurred in growing and processing of corn seed as well.
ETHAONL DIMINISHES THE US ECONOMY - The ethanol from corn system consumes more energy than is contained in the ethanol produced. For comparison, refining gasoline from crude oil feedstock is 88% efficient. It takes 12% of the energy in a barrel of oil to produce a barrel of gasoline. Fuel is a national resource and is consumed to do work and produce profit. If any fuel uses more national resources to produce or acquire than can be recovered by it its use, its use diminishes the national economy.
WATER IS A CRITICAL RESOURCE and is essential for food crops. Water is becoming scarce from aquifer depletion and modified by climate change from Earth warming. The water used in production of fuels, beginning with gasoline is:

• Refining gasoline from oil requires 20 gallons of water per gallon of gasoline.
• Food crops typically require 1000 pounds, 120 gallons, of water per pound of food product.
• In addition to the water required for growing of corn, 10 gallons of water are used per gallon of ethanol in the fermentation process. It must be treated before return to the fields.
• Electrolyzing water uses 2.38 gallons of water for the production of a gallon of gasoline energy equivalent in hydrogen gas fuel.

ETHANOL IS AN ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER - At the refinery CO2 is released from combustion of fuels to power it, CO2 is released from the fermentation process and CO2 is released when the ethanol fuel is combusted. This will be more than twice the CO2 release from combustion of equivalent amount of gasoline.
* Run off from corn growing fields pollutes streams/rivers with chemicals used to maintain corn yields.
* Distillation liquids and bad batch discards have to be contained and processed.
* Coal use by refineries releases CO2, particulate and methyl mercury atmospheric contamination.
* All labor adds more fossil fuel use. Each person providing labor operates an automobile, household, etc.
* All transportation, field prep, harvest and crop preparation for the refinery and for seed corn adds more labor and fossil fuel use.
* Manufacture and transport of agricultural chemicals uses labor and petroleum/natural gas/coal as feedstock and fuel with CO2 release.

THE WINDY SOLUTION

The low cost, carbon free, energy system, with capacity to provide all of US energy need is based on technology that has been demonstrated at industrial scale for years. It is discussed as follows:
SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS - From current practice, criteria for renewable motor fuel include:
* The fuel production and use must be carbon free since Earth’s warming from atmospheric carbon dioxide is measurable and threatening.
* The fuel system must be sustainable meaning that it must not be dependent on, or compete for, critical resources.
* The fuel system must provide all US motor fuel needs within 10 years, and must be economically and thermally efficient.
* The system must be domestically based with thermal efficiency exceeding that for gasoline produced from oil.
* Existing technology must be used.

ENERGY SYSTEM CHOICES - The technologies usable include nuclear, coal, solar voltaic, bio-fuels, geo-thermal, oil, natural gas, tar sands, shale oil, solar thermal, tidal sea flow, thermal cycles from sea water temperature difference, hydro-electric, and wind. Of this array only wind meets all of the requirements. Only wind is carbon free and has the capacity to meet energy needs using technology demonstrated at industrial scale. Note that the feedstock for the wind energy capture system is the wind. Carbon free wind is FREE.
WIND TURBINE EFFICIENCY? - The efficiency of electrical power generation with wind turbines using their fossil fuel use fraction, as for ethanol and gasoline, gives 100% efficiency for wind turbines since wind turbines use no fossil fuels. Ethanol uses more fossil fuels than it produces in usable fuel; gasoline production uses 12% of the oil energy giving 88% efficiency.
Harvesting the wind is the lowest cost system, produces energy at the highest quality level, uses water only as feedstock for producing hydrogen gas fuel, is carbon free, has no waste material of any sort and can be implemented at scale to provide all US energy requirement. The product of the wind turbine, electrical power, is transported to the consumer in wires at the speed of light. No military is required to secure and defend US title to wind.
HIGH QUALITY ENERGY - Electrical power is the highest quality energy form. For example, generating electrical power from a fuel takes about three times the fuel energy input as comes out as electrical power. It takes the energy equivalent of 3 kwh (kilowatt-hours) of fuel to get 1 kwh of electrical power. Electricity will light, heat and cool the house and the beer, run motors, charge batteries, electrolyze salts to refine aluminum, etc with no change of form; in application it is carbon free. Its use, electrolyzing water to make hydrogen fuel, is carbon free. Hydrogen gas fuel used in internal combustion engines, such as in an automobile or a combined cycle gas turbine electrical generating plant, etc, is carbon free. Hydrogen has three times the combustion energy of gasoline on a weight basis. An airplane fuelled with hydrogen will have a lower takeoff weight than if using oil based jet fuel.
WIND FARMS USING MANY TURBINES exist in California, Texas and elsewhere in the US, and commonly in Europe. Electrical power generation from wind is increasing yearly at a very high rate. While It is difficult to get generating costs from public utilities rumor has it that the Texas wind energy cost is less than the rumored 3 cents per kilowatt-hour. We will look into that, below.
WHAT ABOUT COSTS? - Wind turbines cost about $0.60 per installed watt of electrical power generation capacity. A 5-megawatt wind turbine will cost $3 million. It will cost about $2 million to construct the foundation for the turbine mast, transport the turbine elements to the site, erect and make it operational connected to an electrical grid. The 5-megawatt turbine costs about $5 million, running, grid connected, with its output metered to determine revenue. This cost estimate is conservative for a high production rate.
WIND, WHAT WIND? - Based on wind studies of the US the wind at 80-meter (262 feet) hub, fan’s rotational axis, height will allow full output of the turbine 40% of the time. At other times output will be less than the rated turbine output. There is about 2 million square miles of windy region in the middle US not including seashore regions that are the best.
KWH FROM WIND? - One 5-megawatt turbine will generate in one year 5,000,000 watts x 24 hrs per day x 365 days per year x .4 (the full output time fraction) equals 17.5 billion watt hours of electrical power per year. The electrical power industry prices power in 1000-watt hours units, kilowatt-hours, kwh; so divide by 1000; a single 5-megawatt wind turbine generates 17.5 million kwh per year.
TO ESTIMATE COSTS assume money costs 5% and allow 2% for maintenance, the property owner’s royalty, and insurance. 0.07 (7%) x $5 million equals $350,000. Divide the $350,000 by the 17.5 million kwh power production per year and you get $0.02 (2 cents) per kwh. The ‘rumored’ 3 cents per kwh is a conservative cost estimate.
US electrical power generated by fossil fuels including uranium, sells for between 5 and 11 cents per kwh. This depends on quantity, on-off peak, location and fuel costs. We will use the average of 8 cents per kwh for earnings; this is conservative since fossil fuel cost is increasing. Electrical power generated with fossil fuels will have to accommodate three times the price increase increment. The gross profit for each 5-megawatt turbine is the 8 cents revenue per kwh less the 3 cent cost for producing the kwh from wind so 8 – 3 = 5 cents per kwh, 0.05 x 17.5 million kwh per year, or $875,000. Additionally, now there is a Federal 1.9 cent per kwh subsidy on renewable energy boosting the gross profit to $1,208,000. This gives a very short write-off time for the $5 million investment even without subsidy.
BLADES FOR 5-MEGAWATT WIND turbines are made of carbon fibers, glass fibers, rigid foams and resins. There are three blades per turbine and they weigh about 9 tons each, 18,000 pounds each. They are about 200 feet long. Energy and oil feedstock to make them is required in large quantity. The production energy will come from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, or wind and the oil feedstock makes the resins and fibers. This expenditure builds the turbine blades that are capital equipment having a long service life. The carbon in the feedstock ends up in the turbine blades, not in the atmosphere.
OTHER PARTS OF THE TURBINE include the mast that holds the rotating parts away from the ground and the nacelle containing the power generating equipment including power conditioning, and the control system for blade pitch and blade disk heading. This is industrial sized electro-mechanical equipment with solid-state electrical power controls. 5-megawatts is 6,700 horsepower.

WHY CHANGE?

THERE ARE TWO REASONS to implement a change to renewable energy now. These are geologic facts; the Earth is warming with observations defining serious threats to our future, and world oil production has peaked and production rate will be limited and declining in the future.
WHY CHANGE NOW? - Change to domestically based renewable energy has to be made while world oil supply is reasonable. World oil demand is increasing and production rate is estimated to decline from 84 million barrels per day to 64 million barrels per day in the next ten years. US oil wars are going poorly; the Middle East and oil exporting countries will not tend toward civil/political stability as oil revenues decline. Russia is testing energy supply as an economic weapon now. The world oil market could spin out of control at any time. Our military capability could easily prevent delivery of oil to any Nation; it could not, however, force delivery to our Nation. Remaining oil reserves and use of high cost oil from tar sands and shale must be used only as feedstock for high cost essential materials such as fertilizers, paint, rubber, plastics, explosives, and the like; use of oil products as fuel is foolish economically and strategically.
Change has to be made to truly carbon free renewable energy since, even if not one more pound of carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, the Earth will continue warming for the next 100 years. The reason is that the observed warming rate is determined by warming of the oceans. The seas have very high heat content and the Earth is 70% covered by salt water. The US government advises that carbon emissions will increase for the next 10 years. With 5% of world population the US produces 25% of atmospheric pollution. With aggressive action, the US could eliminate 25% of the carbon dioxide contamination of the Earth’s atmosphere in 10 years. This might avoid run-away warming and keep Earth’s life secure. Government’s forecast of increasing pollution for the next 10 years shows intention to do nothing.
A PROGRAM TO REPLACE ALL U.S. MOTOR FUEL in the next 10 years using wind energy looks like this:
* 160 BILLION gallons of motor fuel has to be replaced. The replacement is carbon free hydrogen gas fuel made by electrolyzing water with the electrical power coming from carbon free wind.
* It takes 40 kwh to electrolyze one gge (gallon of gasoline energy equivalent) in hydrogen gas. It takes, doing the arithmetic: 160,000,000,000 gallons per year x 40 kwh/per gge = 6,400,000,000,000 kwh per year. How many 5-megawatt wind turbines is that? Each 5-megawatt turbine generates 17.5 million kwh per year; we know that from the above. So divide the 6.4 trillion by the 17.4 million and we get 366,000 each, 5-megawatt turbines are needed. That is 36,600 per year for a 10-year program. 704 wind turbine systems have to be built and put into operation per week.
* 36,600 5-megawatt turbines cost $5 million each so the annual expenditure of the project is $183 billion. This is 43% of the US military budget. This is 50% of the annual value of the negative US trade balance. The 183 billion annually for the 10-year program is not money from taxpayers. Taxpayers only fund the incentives; industrial and private money buy the equipment and the taxpayers get the benefits.
* The manufacturing set up minimizes transportation of everything including the hydrogen gas fuel. Electrical power is transported in wires to gas stations where the hydrogen is generated and sold.
GOVERNMENT MUST LEAD and declare that, to secure the energy future of the US, it is the intent of the Nation to replace all motor fuel with hydrogen gas fuel made by electrolyzing water using wind power in ten years. As an incentive for a quick start, a subsidy is paid at 2.2 cents per kwh for the first year, and reducing by 0.2 cents per year to zero in about 10 years.
* Government must write law requiring all sustainable, carbon free renewable wind energy be sold first with prohibitive penalties for violation. This is to assure that all involved act to implement adequate, efficient, power distribution grid capacity. This is to assure that fossil fuel generated electricity is retired as fast as possible with only the power generating plants with stand-by capability remaining available for use.
* Government must coordinate building super-conducting power transmission lines and terminals for common use from the US windy region, the central US, to the coasts.
* Government must invite all possible investor organizations to participate. This to include fossil fuel, ‘energy’, companies, electrical power generating utilities, oil field service companies, companies formed to sell investment in the project, philanthropic foundations, individuals and any other financial/commercial outfit interested in making a buck and assuring the survival of the US economy and culture.

IMPLEMENTATION OF WIND POWER

MANUFACTURE of the 5-megawatt wind turbine is distributed to make it possible and to minimize transportation costs, time, equipment, etc. All manufacture is domestic to avoid project discontinuities as world oil production diminishes, and to assure the existence of a valuable export item.
* 704 turbine blade factories are required with the capacity of 4 blades per week apiece; 4 th blade is to maintain schedule while solving problems. These are located in the windy regions of the US, create high paying jobs, use electrical power, have minimum emissions, use no water, use only the land required for the blade plant footprint, use tons of resin and fiber producing wind turbine blades, that, as part of a wind turbine, make money for 40+ years. These turbine blade plants will replace the ethanol refineries in the windy states of the US. This is a jobs program that requires no subsidy, does not compete with food production for critical resources, and is not dead end.
* The turbine’s nacelle containing the rotating parts, generator, turbine controls and power conditioning equipment are manufactured in tooled automotive factories at the rate of 704 per week. These are easily transported to wind farm sites.
* 704 turbine masts are required per week to be made in shipyards and by large steel structure fabrication specialists.
* 704 crews with necessary skills and equipment are necessary to do site prep and build the turbine mast’s foundation, at the rate of one foundation per week each.
* 704 rigging crews with cranes and other equipment are required to erect/assemble the turbine, connect it to grid and make it operational.

AT THE END OF THE 10 YEAR PERIOD the US will not be importing oil from the world market. The energy generated from the installed 366,000 5-megawatt wind turbines will replace all US motor fuel use with hydrogen gas fuel. This is equivalent to 12 million barrels per day of oil, the current US daily oil import.
However looking at the list of the required manufacturing tasks, and the production rate, it is clear that 10-year program with a conventional start-up is not possible. A normal start-up to build this industrial capacity, would take 10 years. Because of world oil production peaking with subsequent decline and Earth’s warming, 10 years for start-up are not available.
IMPLEMENTING ’WARTIME’ LIKE URGENCY government must avoid legislating in the technical area. Government must reward renewable, carbon free, electricity production and depend on industry for applied technology to maximize performance while minimizing cost for the long term by producing reliable, durable, maintenance free wind turbine systems with remote system health monitoring. Government must popularize the energy need and its form and provide incentive that rewards electrical power production rate and low cost. Government could inspire petroleum companies to move with their $140+ billion cash into wind by eliminating direct subsidies for their business as usual.
IMPLEMENTATION STARTS WITH EXISTING TECHNOLOGY - Limiting the number of different wind turbine designs should be encouraged on system’s considerations. Existing designs now in series production should be applied at first. Interface fits and function are controlled as for aircraft manufacture where all assemblies are interchangeable. Designs failing in competition based on power generation and cost get eliminated. Turbine blade manufacture must accommodate aerodynamic design development and tailoring for various wind scenarios.
ELECTRICAL POWER OUTPUT CONTROL must be of the type permitting asynchronous turbine speed, and power conditioning to match grid requirements. All system health monitoring must be remote and include blade health.
IN WIND POWER TRANSITION, integration of the wind generated electrical power into the US economy will base on the continually increasing availability of cheap power known to be carbon free. The increasing cost of oil based fuels, including natural gas, and coal will force their phase out. Increasing electrical power use will result from the new electrical load of electrolyzing water to make hydrogen fuel for conventional autos modified to use hydrogen. Plug-in hybrids and all electrical vehicles will then be carbon free since electrical power used to charge batteries is carbon free. The increasing use of wind generated electrical power will require grid improvements including super conducting transmission from the windy areas of the US to its coasts.
CONTINUING WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURE - At full implementation of the wind turbine replacement for the 160 billion gallons of motor fuel used each year, fossil fuel use will continue to fuel electrical power generating plants. The wind turbine manufacturing capacity will then be available for export and to replace all US fossil fuel, including uranium, fired electrical power generation. In all of the transition from carbon-based fuels to renewable carbon free wind energy there will never be an energy shortage and the energy based US economy will thrive. The economy will be benefited by the addition of an annual $183+ billion, domestic, not subsidized, industrial effort.
For perspective, 1500 5-megawatt wind turbines equal the full time output of a 3000-megawatt nuclear electrical power generating plant. At the production rate of 704 5-megawatt wind turbines per week, electric power-generating capacity goes on line equal to a nuclear plant every 15 days. Wind turbines use no uranium or plutonium. Building a large nuclear plant takes about 10 years.

IN CONCLUSION

A WORLD ENERGY CRUNCH POSSIBILITY EXISTS since world oil demand is increasing and world oil production is decreasing. The crunch possibility is increased as time passes. Political disruption of oil and natural gas supply adds to the problems of slowing world oil and natural gas production; political stability in oil exporting countries is not common and will be amplified as oil revenues decrease. Include Earth’s warming and it would be far better to be way too early than a bit late with US implementation of a carbon-free energy replacement for fossil fuels. US industrial resources must be focused on this effort now.
The chance of being too early with the replacement of fossil fuels with a carbon free, renewable system is actually not available. Being a little late risks survival of the US economy and culture.
This is a call for personal involvement, at a minimum, to inform your associates and your family of this issue. They in turn should become active. Only massive citizen action will lead to an effective survival energy paradigm in the US.
Questions, Comments: Contact John Baird at bardjoh@qwest.net Curtis Bradley at curtise6b@cox.net

V 7 2007-04-6
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