www.nydailynews.com/news/story/481044p-404827c.html

New York Daily News - http://www.nydailynews.com
Why Hil can win in 2008

Sunday, December 17th, 2006

The conventional view of Sen. Hillary Clinton is that she's a polarizing figure who, if she is the Democratic nominee for President, will divide America and either scratch out a victory with 51% of the vote or lose with 49%.
But Clinton's pollster, Mark Penn, argues that a series of recent public polls paints a different picture.

"People always say, 'Hillary can't move up' or 'Hillary is divisive,'" he told the Daily News. "Let me tell you: These polls all show Hillary is moving up, and she has the least polarizing numbers of any of the leading Democratic figures."

Penn cited the ABC News/Washington Post poll of adults this month, which found 56% with favorable opinions of Clinton and 40% with unfavorable opinions. In the poll, she is the only Democratic contender viewed favorably by more than half the country.

"That is a record national favorable, a very high favorable with independent voters," he said. "That would be at or above the favorable that President [Bill] Clinton had in the 1996 landslide, and would be far above what either Bush, [John] Kerry or [Al] Gore had on Election Day."

Polls and their perception matter now, almost two years before the 2008 election, less for what they predict than for what they tell voters and opinion makers about Clinton's strength. Signs of weakness could further inflate the stock of her Democratic leading rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

Suggestions that a contest against a popular Republican like Sen. John McCain or former Mayor Rudy Giuliani is hopeless could lead Democrats to seek a more electable alternative.

Penn, 52, who was the pollster for Bill Clinton's 1996 campaign and Hillary Clinton's 2000 Senate victory, is now worldwide CEO of the giant public relations firm Burston-Marsteller and one of Clinton's top political advisers.

Penn said that her recent victory in New York and the national polling indicate that she's no longer the divisive figure of the 1990s, perhaps in part because of the shifting generations of voters.

"She gets very, very strong support from the younger generation, and particularly younger women," he said.

In recent months, Penn said, he sees "a very significant surge of support" for Clinton among Democrats.

This trend is particularly dramatic in a CNN poll taken this month that showed Clinton gaining 9 percentage points since late October, to 37% in a Democratic primary, while Obama actually lost 2 points to fall to 15%. Other polls show her up by a similar margin but haven't measured his support over time.

"If you notice in these polls she has a very strong lead, Democratic and otherwise, among the African-American community," he said. Obama is black and is widely expected to cut deeply into the Clintons' traditional support among African-Americans.

Turning to the general election, and a possible contest against McCain, Penn dismissed as "an outlier" a recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll that showed McCain up, 50% to 36%, among registered voters.

"You really have a pretty unanimous grouping of ... all of the regular polls. When you look back a year ago you would have seen her down 12 and now she's down 2 or 5," he said of the hypothetical matchup with McCain. Virtually all polls taken in the past six months show McCain up by a single-digit margin.

Hinting at the shape of a Clinton-McCain race, Penn suggested McCain's problem isn't his personality, but his positions.

"People don't know a lot of his views exactly - where he's been on abortion, where he's been on the war," he said.

McCain's support for sending more troops to Iraq, he said, could prove a particular vulnerability.

"There are very few people who want to send more troops right now. He certainly is going out on a limb suggesting that is the right thing to do right now," Penn said.

Asked about the comment, McCain aide John Weaver responded sharply, "It must be so alien for them - the Clinton advisers - to actually observe someone say and do what they believe to be right and good for the country without polling on it first."

Penn also provided an unexpected source of optimism for McCain's GOP rival - and Clinton's old foe - Giuliani.

"The only thing that's surprising [in Republican primary polls] is the strength you're seeing with Giuliani versus McCain," he said.

Here's a less glowing article about Hillary's chances of winning.

www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20061217/1046147.asp

There's little middle ground on Hillary for president
Almost half of those polled say they would not vote for her

By JERRY ZREMSKI
NEWS NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT
12/17/2006


WASHINGTON - Ask Bill Dukas about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, and he'll give you an earful.
She's been "unimpressive" as a senator.

She "has a personality that lacks spontaneity."

And she "emotes ambition."

Dukas, a 63-year-old semiretired construction contractor from Kerhonkson in the Hudson Valley, is not very excited about the moves Clinton made last week toward running for president in 2008.

"The odds are zero she'll get a vote here," Dukas said.

Unfortunately for Clinton, Dukas' opinions aren't uncommon. Even though she's far ahead of her rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, a poll released last week by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion indicated that 47 percent of likely voters would not vote for her for president under any circumstances.

"It means there's not a lot of room for error" if Clinton runs for president, said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute.

Miringoff and other political scientists said Clinton's problem is that, while she's beloved by her supporters, a large minority of the voting public just doesn't like her.

For some voters, negative images of Clinton created during the presidency of her husband, Bill Clinton, have stuck for years. Political pundits said that's a huge hurdle for a politician who seems to have everything else - talent, money, name recognition going for her.

But Clinton aides say that, if she runs, her campaign would be just one more opportunity to change minds, which she has clearly done in New York.

In upstate New York which is demographically similar to swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio Clinton got 61 percent of the vote in her recent re-election bid. That compares with 48 percent in her first race in 2000.

In New York City suburbs, she boosted her share of the vote from 44 percent to 60 percent.

And 64 percent of independent voters pulled the lever for Clinton, up from 46 percent in 2000.

"Anybody who looks at what happened realizes she has a tremendous ability to move people," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton's chief political spokesman.


Negative responses

Then again, she also appears to have a tremendous ability to move some people toward vitriol.

"She's shrewd, crude, driven and without conscience or remorse," one female voter wrote in response to a Buffalo News story about Clinton, who alluded to controversies from Bill Clinton's presidency as the reason for her rancor.

"She's politically expedient," said another.

Dick Bennett, president of American Research Group of Manchester, N.H., heard even worse things earlier this year when he started conducting focus groups to gather voter impressions of likely contenders in the state's key 2008 primary.

Asked to describe Clinton in a word or two, even Democratic voters frequently volunteered terms such as "awful," "cold," "evil" and "phony."

"What was interesting in terms of her is: I couldn't tell the differences in responses between the Democrats and the Republicans," said Bennett, a widely respected independent pollster.

In other words, the Democrats who dislike Clinton dislike her strongly and are thus less likely to be moved to support her.

"It's real, but the Clinton people are smart people, and I'm sure they know about it and are going to do something about it," Bennett said.

It's also possible that Clinton's "negatives" won't matter in the Democratic primaries, for one simple reason. Many Democrats see Clinton as an iconic figure whose presidency would be a restoration, of sorts, of the last great Democratic administration.

"I think that everybody agrees that there's a significant percentage of primary voters that's enthusiastically behind her," said John Gorman, chairman of Opinion Dynamics Corp., a Cambridge, Mass.-based polling firm.

In a poll that Opinion Dynamics did for Fox News last week, even the emergence of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois a Democratic rock star who's now toying with a White House run did nothing to dent Clinton's support.

That poll showed 33 percent of the Democratic voters backing Clinton, which is statistically unchanged from a similar poll in August. That poll showed Obama in second place with the support of 12 percent of Democrats, slightly ahead of former Sen. John Edwards and former Vice President Al Gore. Both Edwards and Gore had lost support from earlier polls, which didn't mention Obama.


Polls matter little

Of course, national polls matter little at this stage, 13 months before Iowa Democrats meet to begin the nominating process. What matters more is what's happening on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire, which will hold its primary shortly after the Iowa caucuses.

Clinton remains broadly popular in Iowa, said Gordon Fischer, a former state Democratic chairman who is supporting a favorite-son candidate, outgoing Gov. Tom Vilsack.

"Everyone loves Hillary," Fischer said. "I think she's just a tremendous person and a real asset to the Democratic Party."

But that doesn't mean she has the caucuses locked up, Fischer added.

"The concern is that Iowa Democrats are very sophisticated, and they want to win the general election," Fischer said. "The question is, is there any room for her to get any more support?"

In other words, Republican voters like George Holdridge could prove to be a worry to Iowa Democrats.

"I think she is purely political," said Holdridge, 71, a Republican from Orchard Park, N.Y. "Anybody who would put up with Bill Clinton is devoid of character."

While any Democratic candidate will have trouble moving hard-core Republicans, Clinton's task, if nominated, will be to move the independents and centrist Republicans who could swing a swing state or two the Democrats' way.

If Clinton runs for president, she'll reach out to voters just like she did in New York, said Lorraine Voles, her communications director.

"She works hard and she proves herself," Voles said. "That's what she'll continue to do."

Wolfson agreed. Noting that many national polls show Clinton running "very close" to leading GOP hopefuls such as Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, Wolfson said: "She's very well-positioned at the start."

If she runs, Wolfson said, "we will make the strong case that she can effectively be the president and be elected president."


Overcoming negatives

While polls show Clinton with a "negative" rating of about 42 percent in many samplings, Clinton backers James Carville and Mark Penn noted in the Washington Post last summer that any Democrat's negative ratings will be that high in the heat of the 2008 campaign.

And besides, a high negative rating isn't necessarily enough to kill a presidential candidacy.

In October 2004, President Bush's negative rating hovered around 50 percent in many polls.

He was re-elected president the next month.


e-mail: jzremski@buffnews.com

news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20061213/pl_bloomberg/arduawyvbls_1&printer=1

Clinton's, McCain's Weaknesses Undercut Edge in 2008, Poll Says
Heidi Przybyla
Wed Dec 13, 6:30 PM ET

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The two frontrunners in the 2008 presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain, face obstacles in their quest to win the White House, according to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll.

In a general election match-up, Clinton, a New York senator, trails 14 points behind McCain, an Arizona lawmaker, according to the survey conducted Dec. 8 to 11. Even Republican Mitt Romney, the outgoing Massachusetts governor and an unknown to many voters, runs only 6 points behind Clinton in a two-way race.

The Democratic primary also presents challenges for Clinton, 59. While 79 percent of registered Democrats and those who say they usually vote for the party's candidates said they like her, a majority also responded favorably to her closest competitors for the nomination, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois.

McCain's weaknesses are within his party. He has the highest negative ratings among Republicans of any potential candidate except former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. One in four of the self-described conservatives, who play a deciding role in the nominating process, said they had a negative opinion of him. Age may also be an issue, as one in seven respondents said they couldn't vote for a 72 year-old, the age McCain will be in 2008.

Obama's `Pizzazz'

Clinton and McCain both ``have vulnerabilities,'' said Fred Greenstein, a presidential scholar at Princeton University. ``Clinton is in danger of being wounded by someone who really has a lot of pizzazz,'' he said referring to Obama. McCain, meanwhile, is ``late'' in ``trying to mend those conservative fences.''

The survey of 1,342 registered voters, including 585 Democrats and 473 Republicans, nationwide has a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points; for Democrats it is 4 points and for Republicans it is 5 points.

Race or gender doesn't appear to pose an obstacle for Clinton or Obama. Just 4 percent of voters said they couldn't vote for a woman and 3 percent said they couldn't vote for a black candidate like Obama.

Obama, who has just two years experience in the Senate, is moving up fast. Fifty-four percent of Democrats give him high marks, even though 40 percent of respondents said they hadn't heard enough about him to judge.

Obama, 45, is Clinton's biggest problem, said Susan Pinkus, the Times polling director. ``He's the rock star,'' Pinkus said. ``He's really like this clean slate. He comes across as charismatic and a new face, the Camelot kind of guy.''

Edwards

Edwards, 53, the vice presidential nominee in 2004, also gets high marks, with 65 percent of registered Democrats rating him favorably. Former 2004 presidential candidate John Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, has the highest negative ratings of any Democrat, at 34 percent. After Clinton, former vice president Al Gore, who said he won't run, is rated most favorably, at 74 percent.

As for other potential Democratic candidates -- New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, and Senators Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, Joe Biden of Delaware and Evan Bayh of Indiana -- most respondents said they hadn't heard enough about them to form an opinion.

Overall, poll respondents said they prefer Democrats to Republicans, by a 49 percent to 41 percent margin.

Among Republicans, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who has said she won't run, had an 84 percent approval rating. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani scored highest, with 86 percent of registered Republicans and those who usually vote for the party saying they had a good impression of him, compared with just 8 percent who have a negative view.

Self-described conservative Republicans even give Giuliani, who is pro-abortion rights and supports gay marriage, higher ratings than McCain.

Social Issues

``Because of 9/11 Giuliani has been very popular,'' Pinkus said. ``But this could change once his positions on different social issues become more well-known. This might not fit well with the conservative branch of the Republican Party.''

McCain, who ran for the nomination in 2000, also may have an advantage because he has undergone far more national scrutiny than Giuliani, 62.

Romney, who will leave office in January, is seeking to cast himself as a conservative alternative to McCain. The poll shows he may be enjoying some success: Romney, 59, received his highest favorable ratings, at 24 percent, from self-described conservative Republicans. Still, 65 percent of Republicans said they didn't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Romney's Mormon Faith

Romney, a former business executive who is winning increased support in his party, is a Mormon. Fourteen percent of voters in the latest poll said they couldn't vote for a Mormon, even if they are in agreement with the candidate's positions on most issues. More than a third of registered voters in a Bloomberg/Times poll conducted at the end of June said they couldn't vote for a Mormon, though that poll made no mention of the candidate's stand on issues.

The only other Republican that voters say they know enough to form a strong opinion about is Gingrich, who has the highest unfavorable ratings at 26 percent. Senators Sam Brownback of Kansas and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Representative Duncan Hunter (news, bio, voting record) of California, former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson and Governor George Pataki of New York all have yet to make an impression on most Republican voters, according to the poll.

www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=14109

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Democrats 2008: Hillary at 39%, Obama Second
December 16, 2006

(ARGM) - Hillary Rodham Clinton is holding on to the lead as the preferred presidential candidate for Democratic Party supporters in the United States, according to a poll by TNS released by the Washington Post and ABC News. 39 per cent of respondents would vote for the New York senator in a 2008 primary.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is second with 17 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 12 per cent, former vice-president Al Gore with 10 per cent, and Massachusetts senator and 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry with seven per cent. Support is lower for Delaware senator Joseph Biden, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, Indiana senator Evan Bayh, retired general Wesley Clark, and Iowa governor Tom Vilsack.

Earlier this month, Clark discussed his views on the Iraq war, saying, "The question is, are you just going to fold up and leave regardless of the situation on the ground, or can you, through diplomacy, try and craft a more favourable exit? My argument is that you can."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore, Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack, Evan Bayh, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, or Chris Dodd, for whom would you vote?
(Democrats and Democratic leaners only)

Hillary Rodham Clinton
39%

Barack Obama
17%

John Edwards
12%

Al Gore
10%

John Kerry
7%

Joseph Biden
2%

Bill Richardson
2%

Evan Bayh
1%

Wesley Clark
1%

Tom Vilsack
1%

None of these
2%

Would not vote
1%

No opinion
4%



Source: TNS / Washington Post / ABC News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,005 American adults, conducted from Dec. 7 to Dec. 11, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

well....10% for our guy and one that keeps indicating he is not going to run aint to bad IMHO. if Al should announce then I think he would by far out poll the others. IMO

The trouble with the recent polls- Hillary is going up. She is not getting less, and she is not disappearing.

And in the one poll where they ask if your #1 don't win, who would be your #2,
and add them together, Hillary gets 60 percent.

Once you are over 50 percent.....

I think this just shows that everything is up in the air, up for grabs :?:

McCain is ahead in the Repub camp, but is the most distrusted by conservatives. Hillary is ahead among Dems, but has two black eyes for her position on Iraq. :wacko:

For all we know it could be Tom Vilsack versus Mitt Romney in 2008 :!:

But that won't stop me from doing my little part to help Al win the nomination :spikey:

I do not think that anyone knows what to say at this time. It depends on how the question is asked, "Who will you vote for." I think it shows that until the right candidate comes along everyone looks good. I think that it is far too early, and that is why Gore has not declared.

This article focuses on how McCain is ahead of both Hillary and Al, but the more important thing in my mind is how much Al has come up. He's now in a statistical tie with Hillary, at least in this poll. :good:

news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20061218/pl_rasmussen/mccainvgoreclinton20061218_1

McCain Leads Clinton, Gore in 2008 Match-Ups
rasmussenreports.com
Mon Dec 18, 1:02 PM ET

Arizona Senator John McCain ® continues to lead Senator Hillary Clinton (D) and former Vice-President Al Gore (D) in the latest Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 poll.

McCain now leads Clinton 49% to 45% and Gore 49% to 44%. This is the second straight survey where McCain has enjoyed a four point lead over the former First Lady. In early December, he held a 48% to 44% lead over Clinton. The last time we polled a McCain-Gore match-up, it was McCain by seven.

McCain holds a lead against every Democratic challenger and has done so in every Election 2008 poll we've conducted to date. Clinton and Gore both trail McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani ®, but lead other GOP hopefuls.

During the summer of 2006, Rasmussen Reports conducted a series of state-by-state surveys asking about a generic 2008 Presidential match-up (Republican vs. Democrat) and then asking about match-ups involving Clinton, Gore, McCain and Giuliani. On the generic ballot, the unnamed Democrat did very well even in Republican leaning states. However, when real names were included, McCain and Giuliani consistently bested Clinton and Gore. In fact, even in the very blue state of Massachusetts, the race for the White House was a toss-up with McCain or Giuliani on the Republican ticket and Clinton or Gore representing the Democrats.

Giuliani and McCain are clearly the frontrunners in the GOP race while Clinton has a solid lead among Democrats. It is not clear whether Gore will seek the 2008 nomination.

Giuliani has by far the highest favorability ratings among the foursome. Seventy-one percent (71%) have a positive opinion of the man many first saw as the Mayor on 9/11. McCain also has high ratings, 59% favorable and 33% unfavorable. Nearly half of all American voters see each of these candidates as politically moderate.

The two Democrats are more polarizing. Clinton is viewed favorably by 50% of Likely Voters and unfavorably by 48%. For Gore, the numbers are 45% favorable and 52% unfavorable. It is worth noting that both have been in the national spotlight far longer than any Republican candidates. A majority now sees both Clinton and Gore as politically liberal.

This national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 14-15, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Actually, hearing those numbers, that McCain has a four or five point lead at this time over H. Clinton or Al Gore :o :D that leaves me feeling quite encouraged :wacko:

The media has done their damage to Hillary or Al or JK. McCain has enjoyed this special favoritism in regards to his public image up to this point. If he runs then believe me, the myth of what an honest maverick John McCain is will be surely deflated and his negative numbers will likely skyrocket. If I were him I would think twice about messing with this nice legacy he has made of himself by running in this 'toxic political environment' :dripple:

First he would have to compete in the Republican primary, which may highlight all the reasons conservatives shouldn't really like him, followed by the general election which will pound home why liberals shouldn't like him either

Do yourself a favor Senator McCain. Stay in the Senate with Senator Clinton :laugh: :spikey:

McCain leads Clinton, Gore???

In a previous post, one poll said that more people would vote for the democrat than the republilcan. Give me a break! :wacko:

If we are to believe ANY polls, how can McCain be leading ANY of the top democrats?

Said it before and I don't think anyone cares, but polls mean nothing!

Please stop obsessing about all these polls. When Al announces, the only poll that will matter is the one that pits him against his opponent for the election.

Thom :coolwink:

No one's obsessing about the polls. It's just interesting to see how people's thoughts about the candidates are changing at this stage of the game. Of course they're meaningless right now. But they do shed light on how people are thinking NOW. Nothing wrong with paying attention to that.

I know their credibility is sometimes questionable but on CNN Wolf Blitzer showed the CNN poll as having McCain still ahead of Hillary a few points but one behind when put against Gore.

And as you said about polls you were right. After all look who got The cover of Time as person of the year.

You're saying Gore was ahead of Hillary and McCain in that poll? That's BIG!

I thought we weren't obsessing with these polls :rolleyes:
OK, well, maybe we'll just say that we are 'highly focused' on good news for Al Gore :read:

But seriously, when you ask who do you prefer, generically, a Democrat or Republican, and compare that to individual candidates, that tells us something about public perception at that snapshot in time.

Which is why I made that comment about McCain. He has enjoyed good press as an independent while his voting record says something quite different. When he calls for sending thousands more troops into Iraq, when he says John Kerry and not George W Bush owe our troops an apology, my sympathy meter shows a drastic decline. He speaks out against the extreme right wing, then bows to them to curry their favor. He's got nowhere to go but down, as does Guiliani. Somebody like Joe Biden might go up as we take a closer look. Biden has made a couple comments he would like back, like the one about 7-11 stores and East Indians, but overall, he's a good, experienced competent guy.

It's interesting to me the way Hillary phrased how she would decide whether or not to be a candidate. She spoke about what was best for her family, her Party, her Nation, etc. She may well run but she was sure giving herself wiggle room to say 'not this time'. :?:

So you couldn't sleep either. :dripple:
Your right about us not being obsessing with polls but it is nice to see your man , who hasn't even announced he's running ahead of the few who are. But still they mean very little. What matters is if we can get the majority who are too lazy to vote to get out and cast their vote. (Hell it maybe the first they ever cast)

al001 :D :D :D

You are no doubt familiar with cattle prods :blink:

I have proposed the manufacture and distribution of sharp pointy voter prods :wtf:

You think I can patent that?

Try it. It does get the cattle here to move from a virtual sleep to action.
:clap:

That's it exactly, Wayne.

:coolwink:

I knew we would come to a reasonable understanding in regards to our position

:chef: