www.sj-r.com/sections/news/stories/99808.asp

Backed for president
But only half are sure ’08 is Obama’s year

By DANA HEUPEL
STATE CAPITOL BUREAU
Published Saturday, November 04, 2006


Three out of five Illinois voters would support U.S. Sen. Barack Obama if he runs for president in 2008, a new Copley Poll shows.

But only half think the time is right for the newly risen political star to shoot for the nation’s highest office.

In the statewide survey, taken Monday and Tuesday, 59 percent of those polled said they would cast their ballots for the Illinois senator if he were the Democratic candidate for president. Twenty-eight percent said they would not, and 13 percent were unsure.

When asked whether Obama should run in 2008, however, 50 percent said he should, 39 percent said he should not and 11 percent were unsure.

Obama said two weeks ago on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he has “thought about the possibility” of running for president and no longer stands by earlier comments that he would serve his full six-year term in the Senate.

Obama exploded to national prominence only two years ago, delivering an inspirational speech at the Democratic National Convention several

months before he was elected to the Senate.

Since that time, he has become one of America’s brightest political luminaries, with appearances to support candidates across the nation - as well as on numerous talk shows and magazine covers - while promoting two best-selling books.

A CNN poll of registered Democrats released Wednesday showed Obama trailing only Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York in support for a presidential run. Clinton was favored by 29 percent of those polled, with Obama backed by 17 percent.

He polled ahead of former Vice President Al Gore, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and the party’s last nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.

“He’s got a sense of momentum right now,” said Brian Gaines, a political scientist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “You never know when attention may shift. You may miss your only window.”

Obama’s lack of experience in the Senate could hurt him in primary elections, Gaines said. But Illinois’ senior U.S. senator, Dick Durbin, who has encouraged Obama to run, believes it could be beneficial because opponents couldn’t use votes on controversial issues against him.

“I told him,” Durbin said during a recent news conference in Springfield, “‘Though you may be lacking in years of experience, you certainly have the values and the skills and the education to honestly pursue this. And furthermore, those people who are arguing, “Well, wait four more years,” you know, do you think 2,000 more votes cast in the United States Senate are going to make you a better candidate for president? I’m not sure they will.’”

Like Gaines, however, Paul Green, a political commentator and professor at Roosevelt University in Chicago, believes Obama’s lack of experience in the Senate could be a liability.

“If you’re going to be president,” Green said, “you need some kind of background. I think it would be used against him.”

Green acknowledged, though, that “if Obama can keep on the wave, it’s going to be very inviting for him to make his move.”

Gaines said a bid for a national office could serve to dilute Obama’s popularity.

“When people learn more” about a candidate, he said, “they’ll find things they don’t like.”

As could be expected, 80 percent of the Democrats polled said they would vote for Obama, compared to 31 percent of Republicans. Among those who identified themselves as independents, 61 percent said they would support an Obama presidential bid.

Women showed more support for Obama than men, 64 to 54 percent.

The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., surveyed 625 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In an attempt to reflect Illinois’ political makeup, 40 percent of the respondents were Democrats, 33 percent were Republicans and 27 percent described themselves as independents.

One positive I do see out of the Obama boomlet is that it will cause the nation generally and the Democratic Party specifically to entertain a paradigm shift in thinking in regard to what we want in a nominee.

However, W will be the chief reason Obama doesn't get far in this upcoming presidential election cycle.

I doubt that the nation will trust the office of POTUS to another person who was not well-vetted as W was not. I doubt the nation will elect another person for POTUS without knowledge and experience in international and major domestic issues. We have all seen the potential calamity of electing a person who totally depends on the knowledge and experience of his advisors to make decisions made manifest.

I agree with what Gaines said in the article, that when people begin to learn more about Obama, they'll decide that there's less to like. Not that he's not likeable. But his lack of experience, in these trying times, is a huge negative, IMO, and I think people will begin to see that. The same, btw, goes for Hillary. So, she will have served in the Senate for two terms in '08 (one of which she would've spent much of the time not doing her job and campaigning for pres. instead). Is that enough experience to lead this country in these dangerous times? No way. Gore comes out so far ahead of the bunch in this area there's no comparison. Congressman, Senator, Vice President, and winner of the 2000 election.

I rest my case.

More on the same subject . . .

www.louisianaweekly.com/weekly/news/articlegate.pl?20061106s

Should Barack Obama Run for President Now?
By Ron Walters, NNPA Columnist
November 6, 2006

Out on the stump speaking in support of Democratic candidates around the country and pushing his newest book, The Audacity of Hope, Senator Barack Obama has fanned the flames of a potential run for Presidency in 2008. The airwaves have been rich with speculation now that he has altered his original position that he would serve out his six-year Senate term for the people of Illinois. Saying that he faced a different circumstance when he was first elected than under the current pressure, he boosted the speculation beginning last month as he headed up speakers at Tom Harkin's annual Steak Fry event in Iowa, many presidential hopes are made or dashed.

Obama fits the "fresh-face" yearning of many Democrats, especially when Mark Warner, former Governor of Virginia, dropped out of contention from a list that looked like the recent past of the Democratic party: Hilary Clinton, John Edwards, John Kerry and Al Gore. The emergence of Obama added a new charismatic face to that picture, sparking evaluations of whether he could win.

This reminds me of the many question about the potential presidency of Colin Powell, when he was widely considered to be leading American public opinion in the early 1990s. Powell was also a fresh face, about which Americans knew little, especially his political positions. But they felt that he was vested in a political and cultural diversity that placed him in a different camp from that of Rev. Jesse Jackson or other civil rights leaders.

Americans yearn for an African-American leader who will give them absolution from the narrative pain of slavery and, instead, take them beyond race into a world of inclusion and, as such, blurr the remnants that slavery wrought in the present. Not long after his political definition began to sharpen and Colin Powell made known that he supported affirmative action and was not a believer in the reflexive use of military power to resolve international crises, his presidential star began to fade.

Currently, Democrats are looking for someone who could mend the hole their moral armor, thinking that the 2004 election was won by the mobilization of voters of faith. Among those who have attempted to answer the critics that the Democratic Party does not know how to utilize the politics of morality, the Senator's speeches have made this linkage more effectively than most. And his recent book contains an entire chapter that anchors and explains his unique religious journey and how it infuses his perspective on public issues today.

Nevertheless, there is a major question of whether Obama's experience and popularity among all aspects of the Democratic constituency will allow him to be successful. Many see him as a potential substitute for Hilary Clinton's bid for the presidency and thus, might support him in order to block her path. And while rumors abound that Bill Clinton has said his wife will not seek the presidency and that Obama might suffice, and Hilary coyly welcomes him into the fray, I see a pair of experienced polls at work.

Bill and Hilary know that very often candidates who look hot in the heat of the day can cool very quickly when they are held up to the glare of the spotlight of excruciating public examination. And while Obama looks good now, they also know that he has no military experience, he has no administrative experience, he would have scant legislative experience in the Senate and thus, little time to have built a record of accomplishments. So, for now the most that he offers is charisma and a personal story that many feel reflects the leadership needed in the future of a more diverse American society.

In this examination, the attitude of Blacks will be important and I have yet to hear Barack Obama make a series of tough speeches on the nature of American racism, or offer creative solutions that begin to resolves the critical economic, social and political issues that still plague Black America. The Black vote constitutes one-quarter of the Democratic base, but it will be interesting to see whether it drives a hard bargain demanding that Obama represent them, or settles, as it has often done, for a "first-black" promise of symbolic value. I would be surprised if the former holds, so I expect the latter.