Doubts over Iraq drive a volatile U.S. campaign
Sun Oct 15, 2006 8:02 ET

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With three weeks left in a volatile U.S. election campaign, growing public unhappiness with the Iraq war has become the top obstacle for Republicans in their fight to keep control of Congress, pollsters and analysts said.

While a Capitol Hill sex scandal shook up Republicans and President George W. Bush's sinking popularity is weighing them down, public concern over Iraq is the dominant factor driving voters toward Democrats in the November 7 election.

"This election has become a referendum on Bush and a referendum on his principal policy, which in the minds of voters is Iraq," said pollster Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center.

"It is clear the public is angry with President Bush and therefore with Republicans for a war that has his name on it," he said.

Iraq has been a critical theme on the campaign trail all year, with Republicans frequently on the defensive over Democratic calls for a change of course and charges the Republicans are rubber-stamps for Bush's decisions.

Republican supporters of Bush's argument that Iraq is a central front in the broader war against terrorism now find themselves part of a national minority, according to recent polls.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found 57 percent of registered voters did not believe America's safety from terrorism depended on success in Iraq -- a direct refutation of Bush's argument for staying the course.

The percentage of voters who thought the Iraq war could actually hurt U.S. efforts against terrorism jumped to 46 percent from 32 percent in one month, while 61 percent said Iraq was in the midst of a civil war, the same survey found. A flurry of other polls showed Bush and Republicans falling to new lows amid the unfolding scandal over former Republican Rep. Mark Foley's lewd messages to male teen-age congressional aides.

Most of those polls also found the war was the top issue driving voters in the November 7 elections, when Democrats must pick up 15 seats in the House of Representatives and six seats in the Senate to win control of Congress.

SPOTLIGHT ON IRAQ?

"If the spotlight is on Iraq for much of the final stage of the campaign, the Republicans could well lose both chambers," political analyst Charlie Cook of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report said in a column.

Democrats were favored over Republicans by 17 percentage points in a USA Today/Gallup poll asking which party could better handle Iraq, and the traditional Republican advantage on fighting terrorism vanished in the same poll, with Democrats ahead by 5 points.

Cook said the Foley scandal was a problem for Republicans, "but in the larger scheme of things, the fact that this election is becoming a referendum on the war in Iraq is the real nightmare for the Republican Party."

As the Foley scandal broke, Bush and Republicans already were on the defensive over a government report saying the Iraq war actually fueled Islamic extremism and over a new book by Bob Woodward of The Washington Post that said the White House bungled the war.

Amid a surge of violence and signs the country is drifting toward civil war, Britain's army chief said last week that postwar planning in Iraq was poor and British troops should leave Iraq soon because their presence was worsening security.

Bush renewed his message of economic improvement and his charges Democrats are weak on terrorism during a midweek news conference, but it was soon drowned out by the drumbeat of news on the Foley scandal, Iraq and a North Korea nuclear test.

"I've never seen anything like it," independent pollster Dick Bennett of American Research Group said of the combination of anger and uncertainty among the public. The topic of Iraq dominates focus groups he conducts with voters, he said.

"What people want is some hope for the future. Who will make this better? They aren't hearing much of that," he said. "Aside from gasoline prices, nothing is getting better for Republicans."

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

Gas actually dropped below $2.00/gallon in my town.

As far as Iraq goes, I'm still pissed that so many people fell in line after 9/11 to follow the Idiot-in-Chief into Iraq. What's wrong with people? I could see we were being hoodwinked, why couldn't they? Even our representatives in Congress fell for it! Cowards and wimps, the Dems. were. Afraid they wouldn't get reelected. Well, now see where we are. Oh, sure, most (like Kerry and Edwards) now say they realize it was a mistake.

It's a little late, fellas. <_<

I find it unbelievable that there are those who still do not associate the drop in gas prices with the upcoming elections.

Well, I've heard loads of experts say it's impossible for the administration to have that kind of control over gas prices, even if they wanted to. Don't know. But I do know that the oil companies want the the Reps. to stay in power in both the legislative and executive branches, so it's entirely possible that they're lowering prices to help the Reps. get more votes.

You'd expect a bit of a drop after the high demand of the summer driving season. But this is ridiculous. It's been dropping like a lead balloon for about a month. I don't believe for a second that it's a coincidence, and I'm also positive that prices will go back up after Nov. 7th. <_<

You'll get no disagreement from me on this. Fill up before the elections.