According to recent nationwide polls, the presidential race is a dead heat, with the spread within the margin of error. Some have Bush ahead by a couple of points, some have Kerry ahead by a couple of points.
But take a look at the way the race is represented by
www.electoral-vote.com, which tracks polls state-by-state and takes electoral votes into account.
Their electoral college tally is Kerry 332, Bush 195. http://www.electoral-vote.com/jul/jul00.html