http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/new...egion-apnewyorkWeather experts predict busy hurricane season; Northeast a target By MARCUS FRANKLIN
Associated Press Writer
March 20, 2006, 6:51 PM EST
NEW YORK -- The 2006 hurricane season will be more active than normal, and the Northeast region of the United States will be hit by a major hurricane within five years, a weather company predicted Monday.
A hurricane-related "weather disaster of historic proportions" could occur as early as this season, experts from AccuWeather Inc. said.
AccuWeather, a private, for-profit weather firm based in State College, Pa., said this year's hurricane season won't quite top last year's record 26 named storms and 14 hurricanes, including the devastating Katrina along the Gulf Coast.
A normal hurricane season, which runs May 15 through Nov. 30, has 11 named storms, five or six reaching hurricane strength, said Ken Reeves, senior meteorologist and director of forecast operations at AccuWeather.com. The meteorologists expect this year's number to be at least "several storms above" normal, Reeves said.
The National Weather Service counted 27 named storms last year.
Besides forecasting a busier-than-normal hurricane season, the AccuWeather meteorologists emphasized that the Northeast is "overdue" for a "powerful hurricane." Current weather cycles and above-normal water temperatures make it a question of when, not if, they said.
"There are indications that the Northeast will experience a hurricane larger and more powerful than anything that region has seen in a long time," Reeves warned.
The meteorologists likened current weather cycles and water temperatures to those in the 1930s, '40s and '50s, particularly the pattern that led to the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, R.I., and killed 600 people.
Winds reached 186 mph, according to AccuWeather. Surges of 15 to 20 feet and waves of 25 to 50 feet left much of Providence 10 to 15 feet underwater.
Because it's been decades since a major hurricane struck the Northeast, the public isn't aware of the region's vulnerability, AccuWeather said.
New York City's emergency management office, in a bid to educate residents, began reviewing evacuation plans and putting up posters last summer with an ominous warning: "NYC Hurricane Ahead." The posters showed lower Manhattan covered with water after a coastal flood in 1950.
"The city of New York is in the middle of a top-to-bottorm review of its hurricane evacuation plan," said Jarrod Bernstein, spokesman for the Office of Emergency Management.
But Assemblyman Richard Brodsky said the city is grossly unprepared.
"If a hurricane were to hit New York City the results would be much closer to Katrina than they ought to be," said Brodsky, a Democrat who chairs the Committee on Corporations, Authorities and Commissions.
AccuWeather said Northeast hurricane damage could rival or surpass that caused by Katrina, which inundated much of New Orleans and, at tens of billions of dollars in damage, is the costliest storm in U.S. history. It plans to release a more detailed forecast, including landfall and strength predictions, in May.
In April the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which includes the National Hurricane Center, will release its hurricane season forecast.
In December 2005, Colorado State University atmospheric science professors released a report predicting an "active" storm season but fewer landfalling major hurricanes in the United States than in 2004 and 2005.
AccuWeather's mission is to save lives and protect property while expanding its business and becoming the best and most-used source of weather information, according to its Web site. It serves more than 15,000 clients worldwide with weather forecasts, data, graphics, consulting services and computer equipment.