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Gentlemen (and ladies), start your campaigns

By Carl Jeffers

We've barely sworn in the president for his second term and already pundits and political pros are hyperventilating over candidates' prospects in the presidential sweepstakes of 2008. And what a sweepstakes it will be.

For the first time in more than 50 years, since 1952 when Dwight Eisenhower faced Adlai Stevenson, there will be neither a sitting president nor a sitting vice president seeking the White House. That makes for an extraordinarily wide-open primary. Prognostications of candidacies, ranging from Al Gore to Newt Gingrich, abound.

Recently, columnist William Safire predicted on "Meet the Press" that the Republicans in 2008 would nominate John McCain of Arizona for president, with Condoleezza Rice as vice president, while the Democrats would nominate Evan Bayh of Indiana for president and Bill Richardson of New Mexico as vice president.

Safire may well have two out of four right, but is likely wrong on the other two.

First, Bayh is not the homegrown "all American boy" with centrist Midwestern values that Safire makes him out to be. Indeed, he has much the same Eastern establishment upbringing as John Kerry, the Kennedys and other Democratic Party stalwarts.

And, Bayh has a fairly liberal voting record. Sure, he's OK with guns, but so were Kerry and Gore, for that matter. It's not the candidate; it's the party platform and the perception that rank-and-file Democrats would support increased gun control.

In addition, Bayh is not a charismatic personality who can reach out and connect with people on a personal level. In fact, Kerry may be better at that than Bayh — and certainly Kerry wouldn't be asked to write a book of advice on the subject.

I am convinced the Democrats must find someone with the personal touch of a Bill Clinton to communicate his or her message — and I say "his or her" for more than reasons of grammar or political correctness.

Bayh simply does not fit that bill. And, he's not a Southern Democrat, the only Democrats who have won the presidency since 1960. So, no, I think Safire's prediction that Bayh will win the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination is wrong.

But Richardson for vice president — now that's another matter. Safire is on to something with this one. I believe that if he wants it, Richardson is a lock for the Democratic VP nomination in the next election.

He might have had it in 2004 if he really wanted it, but there was another problem that most people either overlooked or were unaware of. Both Kerry and Richardson are Catholic. For political considerations, I am convinced that neither party would nominate Catholics for both spots on the national ticket in the same year.

And if the Democrats did, I wouldn't be surprised for a second if the same evangelical conservatives who promote God and religion as the backbone of our government and society would run a vicious underground campaign against the ticket precisely because of the two candidates' religion.

But Richardson is widely respected throughout the party, and he appeals to centrist Democrats and the more-liberal wing as well. Most importantly, he is Hispanic, the most courted group in American politics today, and a group the Democrats desperately need to keep in their column, even as Republicans increase their percentage of the Hispanic vote. Richardson is a perfect vice-presidential choice.

Safire also is right on McCain for the Republicans. Not that McCain is a lock for the top spot, but I believe he can win it with some luck.

And he has already had some with the recent Bernard Kerik scandal bringing down Rudy Giuliani a notch or two, leveling the playing field a bit more for Republicans.

McCain could get support from President Bush, assuming Jeb Bush remains out of the race. And McCain appeals to many more Democrats and independents than any other Republican candidate.

As for Rice, I just don't see it. First, unless the situation in Iraq turns around and becomes a stunning success, she will have to answer for her role in the decision to invade that country. Second, someone has to explain to me how the party that wants to tout family values and pass judgment on all lifestyles not conforming to its views would nominate someone who has never married and has no children, and would then be expected to preach against a woman's right to choose. I think Safire's wrong on that one.

In the end, no serious discussion of 2008 can afford to leave out the one name that generates the most enthusiasm, or fear, depending on your perspective:

Hillary Clinton.

Look for formal campaigns to start in four to six weeks.

Carl Jeffers is a Seattle- and Los Angeles-based columnist and political analyst. He hosts a KIRO-AM(710) talk-show program. E-mail: cjintel@juno.com

Why is everyone so gung-ho on Hillary? Sure, Gore was mentioned in this article, but he was one of two extremes (and therefore, considered not likely to be a viable candidate). Al Gore to Newt Gingrich. The two ends of the spectrum. Gore has a much better chance at winning than Hillary. I wish she would go away.

If McCain does run, he's going to be very tough to beat. Tougher than Jeb, IMO. He's highly credible, highly likeable. He'll get the swing voters as well as the mainstream Repugs. Some Dems. might even be tempted to cross the line. He does, however, have malignant melanoma. I wish him no harm, but I wonder what shape he'll be in in a couple of years. I actually like McCain very much, even though I don't agree with his politics. I think he has integrity, and I think he's a reasonable person. I just don't agree with what he stands for.

This article says campaigns should be starting in four to six weeks. That seems early to me, although I suppose different candidates will start at least making some kind of behind-the-scenes noise. I really wonder what Al is going to do.

You're not the only one who wishes Hillary would go away. In this highly bigotted country, no way a women could win. I someday would like to see it, but not Hillary and it has to be after AL GORE finally gets his well deserved eight years as our president. Do you really think a BWT would vote for her???? A semi-thug wouldn't even vote for a woman, not even some Bush haters that I know. It has to be AL, he is the only hope to put an end to republican oppression and stolen elections.

As far as McCain, he is not in the best of health and I believe he will 72 years old in 2008, maybe alittle to old to run with his health problems.