ZOGBY-DRAFT GORE POLL:
Gore in Statistical Tie With Bush, Leads All Democrats

Half the voters believe Gore would have won in 2000 without Supreme Court Intervention

For the first time since the 2000 elections, a major poll shows the country split evenly between former Vice President Al Gore and President George W. Bush. The same poll also indicates that half the voters in America have not forgotten the controversy of the 2000 election.

The Sept. 5-9 poll shows Bush with less than majority support and only with the narrowest of margins over Al Gore, 48% to 46% -- a difference smaller than the poll's margin of error (3.2%). Moreover, Gore leads Bush among independent voters by 47% to 43%.

"More than two and a half years after the 2000 election and we are back where we started," said pollster John Zogby. "The country was evenly divided then and it is still evenly divided."

The poll, conducted by Zogby International for Draft Gore, also shows Gore leading all major contenders for the Democratic nomination with 24% -- compared to 16% for Dean, 12% for Lieberman, 11% for Kerry, 7% for Gephardt, and 2% for Edwards.

Perhaps the most intriguing result was in response to a question never asked of voters before. The poll questioned respondents whether they agree or disagree that Gore would have been elected president had all the votes been counted in Florida in 2000. Almost half -- 46 percent -- agreed, and 48 percent disagreed (again, within the margin of error). A large majority of Democrats (70 percent) as well as a majority of independents (50 percent) believe Gore would have won had the Supreme Court not intervened.

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease....id=136-09112003

Results and narrative below from Zogby International

Zogby International interviewed 1,000 likely voters on Sept. 5-9, 2003. The margin of error is +/- 3.2%.

Bush v. Gore

If the election for President of the United States were held today and the candidates were Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush, for whom would you vote?

Bush 48%
Gore 46
Other 4
Not sure 3

Receiving less than majority support, President Bush holds the narrowest of margins over Al Gore, 48% to 46%. Combined, 7% would either vote for someone else or are not sure.

Gore receives 77% support from Democrats, 10% from Republicans, and leads Bush among Independent voters, 47% to 43%.

Other support for Gore comes from most African Americans (84%) and slight majorities of college graduates, residents of large cities, Jews, those living in union-member households, people with household income less than $35,000, and women.

Bush's supporters include small majorities of whites, Hispanics, Catholics, Protestants, residents of the suburbs and rural areas, parents of children under 17, people with household income of $35,000-$49,999 and $75,000 or more, and men.

Gore leads in the East (53%) and West (49%), while Bush is ahead in the South (53%) and Central/Great Lakes (54%).

Bush holds slight plurality leads in each of the major age groups, except among seniors 65 and older, where each candidate receives 46% support.

Democratic Primary

Asked of 615 Democrats and independent/minor party members, with margin of error +/- 4.1%.
If the Democratic primary for president were held today and the candidates were Howard Dean, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, Al Gore, John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman, for whom would you vote?

Gore 24%
Dean 16
Lieberman 12
Kerry 11
Gephardt 7
Edwards 2
Other 9
Not sure 19

In a Democratic primary race, Al Gore is the forerunner with an 8-point lead over his closest competitor, Howard Dean, 24% to 16%, respectively. Joe Lieberman (12%) and John Kerry (11%) follow behind. One in five (19%) is not sure of their vote.

Gore's biggest supporters include African Americans (48%), born-again Christians (40%), and people with annual household income less than $15,000 (more than two in five). He also receives support from one-third of 18-29 year-olds and pluralities of one-fourth or more of Democrats, voters in the East and South, 30-49 year-olds, parents of children under 17, residents of large and small cities, Liberals and Conservatives, those living in non-union-member households, and men.

Dean receives twice as much support from voters 30 and older (17%) than from 18-29 year-olds (9%). He also receives plurality support from one-fifth to one-fourth of suburbanites, college graduates, Protestants who do not consider themselves born-again, and people with household income of $75,000 or more. Other supporters include 23% of residents in the East and 20% of whites.

Lieberman's biggest supporters include one-third of Jews, one-fourth of Hispanics, and approximately one-fifth of Catholics, those in union-member households, and people with household income of $75,000 or more.

Supporters of Kerry include approximately 17% of residents of the East, seniors 65 and older, and suburbanites.

2000 Election: Would Gore Have Been Elected Had All Votes Been Counted?

In the 2000 presidential election, the U.S. Supreme Court stopped the final count of votes in Florida. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree that if all the votes in Florida had been counted, Al Gore would have been elected president?

Strongly agree 34%
Somewhat agree 12 Agree 46%
Somewhat disagree 10
Strongly disagree 38 Disagree 48
Not sure 7

Respondents are once again closely divided, as near equal percentages agree (46%) and disagree (48%) that Al Gore would have been elected president if all the votes in Florida had been counted.

A large majority of Democrats (70%), half of Independents, and 15% of Republicans agree that Gore would have been elected president. Most African Americans (86%), two-thirds of Jews, and half or more of residents of the East, those in union-member households, and people with household income less than $35,000 also agree. Women (49%) are also more likely than men (41%) to agree.

Those who disagree Gore would have been elected president had all votes been counted include majorities (of three-fifths or fewer) of whites, Hispanics, Southerners, 18-29 year-olds, suburbanites, Catholics, born-again Christians, people with household income of $75,000 or more, and men.

Country Better or Worse Off with Gore instead of Bush

If Gore were president today, would the country be better off, worse off, or it would make no difference?

Better 37%
Worse 33
No difference 21
Not sure 9

A slight plurality (37%) feels the U.S. would be better off if Al Gore were president today. Almost as many (33%) feel the country would be worse off, and one in five feel that Gore, as president, would make no difference.

Majorities of Democrats (64%) and African Americans (61%) feel the country would be better off today if Gore were president. Pluralities within several sub-groups agree. These include Independent voters, residents of the East, West, and large cities, 18-49 year-olds, college graduates, Jews, those in union-member households, people with household income less than $35,000 and $50,000-$74,999, and women.

Majorities of Republicans (69%) and born-again Christians (52%) say the U.S. would be worse off if Gore were president today. Pluralities of whites, men, people with household income of $75,000 or more, and residents of the South, Central/Great Lakes, and rural areas also agree the country would be worse off.

Hispanics (38%), Catholics (29%), and 18-29 year-olds (34%) are among the most likely to say having Al Gore as president would make no difference.