http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...70&refer=europeYushchenko May Win in Rerun of Ukraine Election, Poll Shows
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko, whose defeat in the Nov. 21 election was overturned by the nation's Supreme Court, may win when voting is rerun Dec. 26, an opinion poll shows.
A majority of Ukrainians, 53.3 percent, said they will vote for Yushchenko, while 41.7 percent indicated they will back former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, according to the nationwide poll of 2,008 registered voters conducted Dec. 14-19 by the Kiev-based Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Studies. The survey had a margin of error of 2.3 points.
Yushchenko supporters packed Kiev's streets in a week of protests after Yanukovych was declared the winner of the runoff election. The dispute threatened to split the nation of 47 million and harmed relations between the U.S., which refused to recognize the result, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who backed Yanukovych. The Supreme Court annulled the result Dec. 3.
``The election is likely to go ahead on Dec. 26, with Yushchenko set to win,'' said Timothy Ash, managing director at Bear Stearns International in London, after Yushchenko warned Dec. 2 that his opponent's supporters may try to disrupt voting. Yanukovych is unlikely to ``generate sufficient momentum for a street protest to seriously challenge that result.''
Yushchenko, 50, whose face was disfigured by dioxin poisoning in what he claims was an attempt on his life by the government of outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, has pledged to overhaul the economy and move the country closer to the European Union if he wins a five-year term as president.
Russian Ties
Yanukovych, 53, seeks closer ties between Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, and would make Russian an official second language. He said Dec. 20 that the country may break apart unless he and Yushchenko find some way of running Ukraine together, without explaining further.
``If you and I fail to reach an agreement, it could happen that one of us who will be elected will become a president of one part of the country,'' Yanukovych said in a televised debate with Yushchenko. He pledged to recognize the result and help unify the country if he lost.
Ukraine, which borders the European Union and Russia, ships most of Russia's gas exports to Western Europe and is a net exporter of metals and grain. Its economy expanded 12 percent this year, the fifth straight year of growth, according to a government estimate, helped by tax cuts and export earnings. Expansion may slow to between 6.5 percent and 8 percent in 2005, the government said Dec. 16.
Divided Nation
Russians make up about 17 percent of Ukraine's population, most of them living in the east of the country and on the Crimean peninsula in the south. The eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions began considering a bid for autonomy after Yanukovych failed to win last month.
``There is nothing that divides the nation,'' Yushchenko said during the debate. ``Such politicians as you are outsiders, who now have nothing left but to try to split'' the country.
Yushchenko accuses Yanukovych's allies, including the former governor of the Donetsk region, of preventing him from campaigning in the east and of blocking broadcasts from television networks that gave him time on the air.
Yushchenko and his supporters have accused Kuchma's government of trying to prevent a fair election, suppressing media and opposition politicians. Kuchma, who has decided not to seek a third term in office, denies the allegations.
Yanukovych took 49 percent of the Nov. 21 vote, while Yushchenko had 47 percent, the Central Electoral Committee said.
Chain of Events
Draped in orange banners, scarves and hats, Yushchenko's supporters organized street protests and blocked access to government buildings in Kiev. The demonstrations attracted media from around the world as politicians from the European Parliament, Poland and Lithuania tried to mediate.
The protests led Yanukovych's supporters, who favor blue and white as their campaign colors, to call for the Russian-speaking territories to split.
The parliament approved a resolution on Nov. 27 calling the result invalid and the Supreme Court ruled Dec. 3 that the election was riddled with fraud, including destruction of votes, incorrect registration and repeated voting by individuals.
Lawmakers also passed a motion of no confidence in the government of Yanukovych on Dec. 1. He refused to resign. Under the constitution, a new president appoints a government.
Stopping Fraud
The electoral committee has promised to prevent voting irregularities in the rerun. A new law tightened controls on absentee ballots in an effort to prevent multiple votes, and reduces the number of people eligible to vote from home. The law also allows the candidates to have an equal number of representatives at regional electoral committees.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is among international groups that, along with individual EU states, are sending monitors to observe the Dec. 26 election. The OSCE said in a press release it will have more than 1,000 observers in Ukraine.