http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle...section=commentFinally, green signal to Kyoto
By Mohammed A. R. Galadari
20 November 2004
A GOOD news for environmentalists and all those who love Mother Earth came yesterday with Russia formally declaring that it has ratified the Kyoto protocol. It means there is no more suspense over the long-pending treaty, and it will finally take effect in three months’ time. This is irrespective of the fact that the super power, the US, has side-stepped the treaty.
Dear readers, climate is everybody’s concern. And the changes in climate are for real. The fear is that, as per present trends, the global average temperatures could rise by 1.4 and 5.8 C to 2.5 and 10.4 C in the next hundred years. Scientists present a scary picture, linking global warming to frequent occurrences of droughts, heatwaves, and hurricanes. The European heatwave that killed several thousands of people last year is cited as a case in point. If left unattended, climate change could also lead to more discomfiture, health problems, and even the mankind’s extinction in the course of time. So goes the warning.
Politicians in general do not take a long-term view of things, as they are faced with the problems of the present, and hence the clamour by scientists to press the case ahead.
In day-to-day life, we are already feeling the effects of climate change. It’s more sunny during the summer in Europe now, as compared to previous years. Scientists say excessive emissions of industrial gases such as carbon dioxide — the main villain in climate change — will make the Arctic warmer, leading to a rise in sea levels, and eventual decimation of many islands and distortion of the earth’s surface across the continents. Russia should be given due credit for taking this decision. But the fact is also that it is easy for Putin to give his nod, and difficult for Bush to do so. The Bush administration feels it is “too expensive an affair”, though former vice-president Al Gore was actively involved in its formulation in Kyoto, Japan. Bush’s argument is that it should not be incumbent only on the developed nations to come under the framework of the treaty and its regulations, while the developing nations like India and China are left out. He is also concerned that the cost of meeting Kyoto’s commitments would be too high for the US economy and its industries. His administration says the US is in no position to bear the cost, nearly $400 billion, and loss of almost five million jobs. A fear is also that many industries would shift their activities from the US to countries that are not bound by the treaty, so as to reduce operational costs.
For Russia, however, the scenario is different. Industrial activity has come down there after the disintegration of the USSR, so much so that the emission of greenhouse gases there decreased by 38.5 per cent in the last one decade. That makes it easy for Putin to conform to the provisions of the treaty. Still, the Russian nod marked a major turning point for the treaty, as it helped meet the minimum requirement for it to take effect: namely ratification by 55 countries accounting for at least 55 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions by developed nations.
The treaty would not have been a reality had the European Union not risen in strength to back it. That as many as 30 industrialised countries have ratified it goes a long way to prove the commitment of the developed world to meet the climate threat. Still, the resolve to reduce global warming and arrest climate change in its tracks should be a collective commitment. Hope is that those nations that are not part of the treaty could eventually be persuaded to fall in line.